September 2025 | No. 503

September 2025 | No. 503

Editorial

New realities, old risks

José Ramón Díez

Key points of the month

A differential expansive cycle
Oriol Aspachs

Forecasts and indicators

Forecasts and indicators - september 2025

Financial markets

Calm markets, latent risks
CaixaBank Research
What is behind the ECB’s interest rates
CaixaBank Research

International economy

The international economy holds up over the summer
CaixaBank Research
5% of GDP on defence: Why? What for? Is it feasible?
David Martínez Turégano
The 2028-2034 EU budget: An impossible mission?
David Martínez Turégano
Do tariffs work as a fiscal revenue tool in the US?
Isabela Lara White

Spanish economy

The good times continue for the Spanish economy
CaixaBank Research
The causes of the departure from employment
Sergio Díaz
Spain’s middle class in numbers: rising incomes, waning sense of progress
Josep Mestres DomènechAnna Bahí Esteba

Portuguese economy

Portugal maintains the economic momentum thanks to employment and investment
CaixaBank Research

Dossier

Will an ageing society pay lower interest rates?
CaixaBank Research
The impact of ageing on public finances: a major challenge for Spain and Europe
Javier García Arenas
Levers to mitigate the impact of demographics on public finances: the case of pensions
Javier García ArenasVânia Duarte
Demography and destiny: the world that awaits us in 2050 with fewer births and longer lifespans
Josep Mestres Domènech
The effects of ageing on growth and policy tools to mitigate them
David Martínez Turégano

Forecasts and indicators - september 2025

18 September 2025