Key issues

Europe: economic and political Outlook

Anatomy of the euro area slowdown: lessons from the second half of 2018

• In the second half of 2018, the European economy slowed significantly. In this article, we analyse and quantify the role of the three factors behind this slowdown: the lower consumption of cars, the slowdown in trade and political uncertainty. • We believe that these three factors explain almost all of the slowdown in Europe: 40% of the slowdown can be attributed to the lower consumption of vehicles, slightly more than a third to the slowdown in trade and one fifth to political uncertainty. What lies behind the slowdown? The...