Key issues

The importance of geopolitics in a globalized world

The threat of protectionism in the global economy

• Trade tensions between the US and China pose a risk to growth, both for the US and China themselves and for the rest of the world. • Under a moderate tariff stress scenario, we estimate that average annual global growth over the next three years could be 3 decimal points lower than anticipated (3.1% versus 3.4%), largely due to greater uncertainty. • Under a high tariff stress scenario, growth could be 8 decimal points lower than forecast (2.6%), due to trade and uncertainty in equal measure. Since the beginning...