Key issues

US: end of cycle and long-term outlook

The US credit cycle: how much should it concern us? Part III

• Vulnerabilities in the US credit cycle will probably not be the trigger for the next recession. However, they could amplify the slowdown in the US economy. • Specifically, we estimate that if these vulnerabilities are activated, they could result in a tightening of financial conditions that would subtract between 0.3 and 0.7 pps from GDP growth in 2020. Having analysed the state of private credit in the US in two previous articles, 1 we close the series by answering the most frequently asked questions regarding the business cycle and...