Financial Markets Daily Report
04 marzo 2026
Elevated volatility persisted as the Middle East conflict intensified, heightening concerns over sustained disruptions to energy supplies. Brent crude advanced to USD 85/barrel and TTF natural gas rose above EUR 55/MWh (briefly nearing EUR 60 intra-session), up roughly 25% and 100%, respectively, since mid-February. Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off, with Asian and European markets underperforming US indices.
Sovereign bond yields moved higher globally, reflecting renewed inflation concerns driven by energy prices. Euro area yields increased by around 7bps, with peripheral spreads widening by 3–6bps, while US Treasury yields posted more moderate gains, remaining above last week’s levels. Euro area headline inflation edged up to 1.9% YoY in February (see our take here).
Safe-haven flows supported the US dollar, with DXY index up roughly 1.5% since the conflict escalated, leaving the EUR/USD cross near 1.16 (vs. 1.18 a week ago). As the dollar strengthened, gold prices fell -4% and near USD 5,000/oz.