• Castile and León’s GDP accounts for 4.8% of Spain’s GDP, so it is ranked seventh out of all regions.
• With a population of almost 2.4 million inhabitants, 5.0% of the total, it is the sixth most highly populated region; it is one of the oldest regions, as 26.5% of its population is over 65 years old (national average of 20.1%).
• GDP per capita stands at 26,992 euros, which is 4.2% below the Spanish average. The region has been catching up in recent years, within a context of sharp population decline and modest economic growth.
• In terms of its productive sectors, Castile and León is notable for the relative importance of its public sector (20.9% vs. the national average of 17.8%), agriculture (5.2% vs. 2.6%) and the manufacturing industry (16.4% vs. 12.5%), above all, the agri-food, chemical-pharmaceutical and motor vehicle industries. However, it has a lower share in trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (24.4% vs. 28.4%) and industry-related services (22.1% vs. 28.5%).
• Although the region has become more export-oriented in recent years, exports of goods account for a lower percentage of regional GDP (23.1%) than the Spanish average (28.9%). In 2022, it exported goods worth 14.813 billion euros, representing 3.8% of Spanish exports. The leading export sectors are the motor vehicle industry (27.2% of the total), food (19.5%) and chemical products (11.4%). The region accounts for 40% of the tyres and inner tubes exported by Spain.

According to our estimates, Castile and León’s GDP grew by 1.9% in 2023, less than the Spanish economy as a whole (2.4%), and recovered the pre-pandemic level a year later than the rest of Spain. Added to the prolonged contraction of the agricultural sector was the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on household spending; on the plus side, normalisation of the supply chains helped boost the industrial sector, in particular, the motor vehicle industry.

CaixaBank Research’s forecasts point to Castile and León continuing along an expansionary path in 2024, though at a slower pace, with GDP growth of 1.2% (1.4% in Spain). Industry will continue to perform well, but construction and, above all, the services sector will slow down its growth. As in other industrial regions, the main risk of the scenario comes from the potential impact of geopolitical tensions, due to a rise in the price of commodities or blocked trade routes.

Castile and León’s labour market is slightly more sluggish than across the country as a whole. In December 2023, the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security grew by 2.2% year-on-year (2.7% in Spain), mainly thanks to healthcare and education, and by 4.0% when compared to 2019 levels (vs. 7.4%). In turn, the unemployment rate in Q4 2023 was 9.5%, lower than it was at the end of 2019 (11.2%) and below the national average (11.8%).

Consumption remains somewhat sluggish in the region, in view of its performance in retail and consumer goods in volume. After the sharp decline in 2022, constrained by the inflationary climate, the upturn between January-November 2023 was more modest than in the rest of Spain (+4.7% year-on-year vs. +7.7%), so it was one of the regions that was furthest from 2019 levels (–4.7% vs. +3.0% in Spain).

Industrial production, which recorded the worst figures of all regions in 2022, after being severely affected by the impact of bottlenecks in global markets and high energy costs, experienced a sharp upswing in the first 11 months of 2023 (+3.7% vs. –0.6%), supported by the chemical, electricity supply and motor vehicle industries. In any case, Castile and León’s IPI remains far from 2019 levels (–4.3% vs. –1.2%).

After the stagnation of the previous year, there was a sharp upswing in the exports of goods in 2023, with a growth of 15.2% year-on-year until November, the best result of all regions, compared to the decline of the national average (–0.7%): exports of the motor vehicle industry, semi-manufactured products (in particular, tyres and inner tubes), and food (processed foods, fruit and pulses) were notably buoyant. Therefore, the region’s export sales were up by 15.4% when compared to the levels of January-November 2019; in any case, far from Spain’s levels (+32.1%).