Indicators and forecasts


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Tables


FORECASTS

Average for the last month in the period, unless otherwise specified

Financial markets

Average

2000-2007

Average

2008-2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

INTEREST RATES

Dollar

Fed funds (upper limit)

3.43

0.48

1.50

2.50

2.50

2.50

2.25

3-month Libor

3.62

0.70

1.61

2.79

2.70

2.65

2.40

12-month Libor

3.86

1.20

2.05

3.08

2.85

2.80

2.55

2-year government bonds

3.70

0.73

1.84

2.68

2.55

2.60

2.50

10-year government bonds

4.70

2.61

2.41

2.83

2.75

2.80

2.70

Euro

ECB depo

2.05

0.40

–0.40

–0.40

–0.40

–0.10

0.00

ECB refi

3.05

1.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.25

0.50

Eonia

3.12

0.65

–0.34

–0.36

–0.35

–0.10

0.15

1-month Euribor

3.18

0.79

–0.37

–0.37

–0.33

–0.08

0.18

3-month Euribor

3.24

0.98

–0.33

–0.31

–0.28

–0.05

0.20

6-month Euribor

3.29

1.14

–0.27

–0.24

–0.18

0.05

0.35

12-month Euribor

3.40

1.34

–0.19

–0.13

–0.08

0.15

0.50

Germany

2-year government bonds

3.41

0.69

–0.69

–0.60

–0.40

–0.10

0.35

10-year government bonds

4.30

1.98

0.35

0.25

0.40

0.70

1.20

Spain

3-year government bonds

3.62

2.30

–0.04

–0.02

0.02

0.19

0.64

5-year government bonds

3.91

2.85

0.31

0.36

0.42

0.56

1.00

10-year government bonds

4.42

3.82

1.46

1.42

1.40

1.50

1.90

Risk premium

11

184

110

117

100

80

70

Portugal

3-year government bonds

3.68

4.42

–0.05

–0.18

–0.17

0.10

0.72

5-year government bonds

3.96

5.03

0.46

0.47

0.44

0.69

1.27

10-year government bonds

4.49

5.60

1.84

1.72

1.60

1.85

2.35

Risk premium

19

362

149

147

120

115

115

EXCHANGE RATES

EUR/USD (dollars per euro)

1.13

1.30

1.18

1.14

1.15

1.19

1.23

EUR/JPY (yen per euro)

129.50

126.36

133.70

127.89

125.35

126.14

130.38

USD/JPY (yen per dollar)

115.34

97.50

113.02

112.38

109.00

106.00

106.00

EUR/GBP (pounds per euro)

0.66

0.83

0.88

0.90

0.85

0.84

0.83

USD/GBP (pounds per dollar)

0.59

0.63

0.75

0.79

0.74

0.71

0.68

OIL PRICE

Brent ($/barrel)

42.3

85.6

64.1

57.7

66.0

63.0

63.0

Brent (euros/barrel)

36.4

64.8

54.2

50.7

57.4

52.9

51.2

Forecasts

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