In yesterday’s session, investors focused their attention to macroeconomic data releases. In the UK, inflation decreased by more than expected in November, from 4.6% to 3.9% the headline index and from 5.7% to 5.1% the core, reinforcing the idea that the BoE might start cutting rates in the first half of 2024.
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Central bank officials continued to push against the expectation of as many as six interest rates cuts in 2024. Yesterday, was Fed’s Christopher Waller turn, who suggested moving not as quickly as in previous easing cycles.
In the first session of the week, investors continued to reassess their expectations on the upcoming easing of the ECB and Fed’s monetary policy stance. The January PMI and ISM data releases showed a stronger-than-expected start of 2024 that decreased further the probabilities of seeing the first rate cut in April and May for both central banks.
In the first session of the week investors traded cautiously as they wait for new messages coming from central bank officials on the interest rate path ahead. In particular, all eyes are on the ECB Governing Council meeting on Thursday, where the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged and reiterate the data dependency approach for 1H2024.
Investors’ risk appetite increased yesterday after US CPI data for May showed encouraging results in the disinflation process. Government bond yields fell sharply on the news on both sides of the Atlantic, although the gains were somewhat reversed later in the day as the Fed held rates steady and reduced its forecast for rate cuts in 2024 from 3 to 1.
A quiet session on Wednesday as US markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday. In the eurozone, government bond yields rose and peripheral spreads widened after the European Commission opened an excessive deficit procedure for France, Italy, Belgium and five other member states under the 2024 European Semester Spring Package.
Yesterday’s session centered around the June inflation report from the US: inflation cooled to 3.0% in June (from 3.3% in May) and core inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.4% last month. On a monthly basis, prices fell –0.1%, the first negative rate in four years. Markets are discounting two interest rate cut from the Fed in 2024, and a 40% probability of a third cut.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, and hinted that if inflation readings continue in the right direction, a September rate cut "could be on the table." Markets reaffirmed their expectation of three 25bp interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2024. Treasury yields fell by +10bp, and US equities rallied.
The continued repricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later this week was the main driver of financial markets during yesterday's session. The probability of a 50bp rate cut in the upcoming meeting rose to 70% from 50% last week, and the total amount of cuts in 2024 is now expected to be 120 bp, up from 100 bp.
Spain’s tourism sector enjoyed rapid growth in 2024 and has support factors to continue expanding in 2025. These include the economic growth of the main source countries and the sector’s price competitiveness, as it continues to seek a reduction in its seasonality to avoid congestion during the peak season and increase the utilisation of the installed capacity. The good performance of the tourism sector will be key in ensuring that catering continues to enjoy its current level of buoyancy.
Risk-off session in financial markets following the largest monthly drop (seven points) in three years in the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which fell to 98.3 (the lowest level since July 2024), while twelve-month inflation expectations surged by almost 1 percentage point.
The Spanish real estate market accelerated in 2024, supported by the easing of financial conditions and the strength of the country’s economy. In 2025, we expect that demand will remain very strong and, although supply will continue to gradually increase, the housing deficit accumulated in recent years will sustain significant price growth at levels similar to the current ones.
The Fed held its benchmark short-term interest rate and said it will continue to buy $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. Policymakers now see the first rate increase coming in 2023 instead of 2024.
During yesterday's meeting, the Federal Reserve sharply upgraded its forecasts for growth in the U.S. and signalled that interest rates would remain unchanged until at least 2024 and that it would continue to buy bonds at a pace of $120 billion per month until it made "substantial further progress" towards its goals.
Si bien la creación de empleo en junio ha resultado algo más débil que en meses anteriores, en el conjunto del 2T se ha observado un notable ritmo de crecimiento de la afiliación, con un avance intertrimestral del 0,8%, en términos desestacionalizados, frente al 0,7% anotado en el 1T.
El PIB sorprende al alza en el 2T 2024. Creció un 0,8% intertrimestral (como en el 1T 2024), sustancialmente por encima del crecimiento promedio de la eurozona (0,3% intertrimestral).
El valor de tasación de la vivienda libre volvió a crecer con fuerza en el 2T 2024, con un aumento del 1,6% intertrimestral, por encima del también dinámico 1,3% en el 1T. En términos interanuales, el precio también se aceleró respecto al trimestre anterior (5,7% en el 2T 2024 frente al 4,3% del 1T). A pesar de esta tendencia alcista, cabe señalar que el valor de tasación, en términos nominales, aún se encuentra un 9,8% por debajo del máximo registrado en el 1T 2008. En términos reales (ajustando por la inflación), el valor tasado de la vivienda libre se encuentra un 34% por debajo del máximo.
El PIB sorprende al alza en el 3T 2024, con un avance del 0,8% intertrimestral (como en el 2T 2024), sustancialmente por encima del crecimiento promedio de la eurozona (0,4% intertrimestral). Este comportamiento ha superado nuestras expectativas, que anticipaban un avance del PIB del 0,5% intertrimestral. En términos interanuales, la tasa aceleró ligeramente respecto al trimestre anterior, del 3,2% al 3,4%.
Según el primer avance publicado, el PIB estadounidense creció un 0,7% intertrimestral (2,8% anualizado) en el 3T 2024, moderándose apenas 0,04 p. p. frente al ritmo de crecimiento observado en el trimestre anterior. Este resultado estuvo prácticamente en línea con las expectativas del consenso de analistas (0,72%) y las proyecciones de los nowcasts de la Fed (0,70% de la Fed de Atlanta y 0,72% de la Fed de Nueva York).
El resultado de las elecciones americanas ha sido un “Republican sweep”, con la victoria de Donald Trump y, casi con toda seguridad, el control del Senado y la Cámara de Representantes por parte del Partido Republicano. Además, el Tribunal Supremo tiene una clara mayoría conservadora.