Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Central banks took center stage, with a broadly hawkish tilt across major economies. The ECB left the depo rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected, but highlighted stagflationary risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. Euro area sovereign yields edged higher, as markets now fully price in two rate hikes in 2026, while the euro recovered and equities declined sharply.
The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, while striking a hawkish tone and projecting higher inflation. Chair Powell noted that the economic impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain but could add to inflationary pressures and weigh on activity. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, as expectations for a rate cut in 2026 declined toward 50%, while equities ended lower and the dollar strenthened.
Risk sentiment continued to improve and volatility eased during yesterday’s session, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Global equities advanced, with gains led by energy stocks, while the US dollar weakened. Brent crude rose further above $100/barrel, with futures markets pointing to a decline toward $82/barrel by year-end.
Signs of easing tensions in energy markets supported a modest improvement in risk sentiment. Reports of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, alongside comments from the IEA on potential reserve releases, pushed Brent crude down by around 3% to $100/barrel. Global equities rebounded, volatility declined, and the US dollar weakened (EUR/USD rose toward 1.15).
Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove a risk-off move across markets on Friday, with Brent crude rising above USD 100/barrel as concerns over energy supply disruptions intensified. Global equities declined, while the US dollar strengthened as a safe haven, pushing the EURUSD cross toward 1.14.
Yesterday's session showed a risk-off tone amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude prices hit $100/barrel after Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader, vowed to keep the Strait of Ormuz and after Iran reportedly attacked oil tankers and other energy facilities.
During yesterday's session, market volatility continued to be elevated as the conflict in the Middle East approached its third week. Energy prices continued to rise as tensions intensified in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the International Energy Agency announcing the record release of 400 million barrels from their oil reserves, which investors see as insufficient.
Yesterday’s session reflected a risk-on tone in European and Asian markets, as investors reacted to late Monday remarks from President Trump suggesting that the Middle East conflict could end soon. Asian equities rebounded sharply, with Japan’s Nikkei-225 rising around 3%, and the Spanish IBEX-35 outperforming European peers.
Yesterday, investors remained focused on developments in the Middle East conflict. After an eventful weekend, which saw increased tensions and Mojtaba Khamenei appointed as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Brent prices surged to nearly $120/barrel during yesterday's session. Prices have since retraced, however, after President Trump suggested late yesterday that the war could be close to ending, leaving Brent trading around $93/barrel this morning.
Friday’s session began on a risk-on footing, with European equities moving higher in early hours. Sentiment later turned more cautious following remarks from Qatar’s energy minister suggesting that oil market normalization could take weeks to months after hostilities end. Brent crude spiked over $90/barrel and is trading above $100 as of this morning.
Heightened geopolitical tensions kept markets volatile as the Middle East conflict entered its sixth day. Energy prices moved higher, with Brent crude rising to $85/barrel and TTF gas to €50/MWh. Equities extended their sell-off in the US and the euro area after their short rebound on Wednesday, while the dollar strengthened, pushing EUR/USD toward 1.16.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, although yesterday brought some relative calm after the sharp volatility seen earlier in the week. Brent crude traded in a $80–85/barrel range before settling near $81, after President Trump said the US would protect shipping routes in the region. European natural gas prices fell back below €50/MWh. Equity markets continued to slide in Asia but recovered in the US and Europe, while the dollar stabilized around 1.16 against the euro.
Elevated volatility persisted as the Middle East conflict intensified, heightening concerns over sustained disruptions to energy supplies. Brent crude advanced to USD 85/barrel and TTF natural gas rose above EUR 55/MWh (briefly nearing EUR 60 intra-session), up roughly 25% and 100%, respectively, since mid-February. Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off, with Asian and European markets underperforming US indices.
