Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Brent and TTF saw significant volatility during the session, with initial gains fading on signals from Iran regarding potential peace negotiations, before prices recovered some ground later in the day. Brent recorded its second consecutive daily decline (-1,7%), while TTF edged slightly lower.
Equities rallied on both sides of the Atlantic on Monday, as investors looked ahead to earnings releases from major technology companies and Spanish banks later this week. Oil prices remained broadly stable, while Dutch TTF natural gas gained 3% to 96.7 €/MWh, reaching its highest level since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.
Investors ended the week shaking off some of the previous risk-off mood. In the eurozone, German yields rose and peripheral spreads narrowed (particularly in France) as flight-to-quality demand faded, while weaker-than-expected October PMIs (French Composite: 48.7) reinforced expectations of an ECB pause on Thursday.
Thursday's session carried a distinctly risk-off tone, driven by tensions in the Middle East and AI investor concerns. Brent oil surged on Saudi Arabian supply disruption fears, and TTF gas rose in tandem with oil prices. Stock markets declined across the board, further dragged by a selloff in technology equities.
Sovereign bond markets remained under pressure as investors grappled with persistent inflation risks, higher energy prices and uncertainty surrounding the AI-driven growth story. US Treasury yields stayed elevated while in Europe peripheral spreads widened further amid fiscal concerns, with French yields hitting the 5% threshold for the first time since 2002, while UK gilt yields rose after stronger-than-expected inflation data.
French bond stress deepens The French spread reached 153bps, its widest since early October, as France's fiscal and political pressures continued to weigh on sovereign debt. The euro weakened as the French spread widened, with ECB Governing Council member Rehn acknowledging the spread had moved "somewhat”.
Risk sentiment weakened in Europe as persistent investor concerns over France’s fiscal outlook continued to weigh on equities, the euro and sovereign bonds. In contrast, U.S. equities advanced, led by gains in AI-related and semiconductor stocks.
Friday saw a mixed session across asset classes. Energy prices rose amid elevated geopolitical risks in Hormuz and Ukraine, keeping short-term inflation expectations under pressure, particularly in the US.
Thursday's session carried a cautious tone. Market concerns over the sustainability of AI investments weighed on chipmakers and technology equities, but the main U.S. stock market benchmarks ended higher while European indices were mixed. Brent oil and TTF natural gas prices nudged down.
Moderate risk-off sentiment prevailed across markets following the upside surprise in U.S. inflation, while oil prices remained elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, standing at 3.7% YoY, driven primarily by energy prices, particularly gasoline.
World stocks fell, led by chipmakers and concerns over AI spending. Wall Street closed lower (the Nasdaq 100 dragged by semiconductors) and Asian shares hit a two-month low before steadying as the selloff eased. In Europe, the STOXX 600 touched a one-week high on softer oil and yields. US big-bank earnings (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo) kicked off to mixed reviews.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained at the center of investors’ attention on Monday. Oil prices moved higher following attacks on Saudi Arabia, offsetting earlier optimism around Russian diesel exports and a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire announced by Trump over the weekend. Brent crude rose 1.8% to USD 106.7/bbl.
Energy prices rose on Thursday amid reports of intensified Iranian attacks on tankers crossing Hormuz, before Trump ruled out new US attacks on Iran ahead of the midterms. Eurozone short-term inflation expectations rose, while ECB and Fed hike expectations remained stable, as officials struck a cautious, mildly hawkish tone and did not endorse an October move.
