Financial Markets Daily Report

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Thursday was dominated by a hawkish-hold FOMC, ongoing AI-capex concerns, and a sharp re-escalation of the US-Iran war.

Markets weighed lower geopolitical risk and falling energy prices against growing concerns over AI-capex returns. Brent oil fell to $84/barrel, lowering  inflation expectations (especially in the short-term) and sovereign yields on both sides of the Atlantic.

Risk appetite surged on Monday as US strikes on Iran remained paused for a second consecutive night. Energy prices declined sharply, with Brent dropping below $90 per barrel. This lowered inflation expectations, with euro area 1Y inflation swaps falling by around 0.2 p.p. to 2.4%. Sovereign yields also declined across the board, particularly in the euro area.

Markets ended Friday with a cautious tone as lower energy prices supported sovereign bond yields amid resilient macroeconomic data. Yields declined on both sides of the Atlantic, more markedly in the euro area, with peripheral spreads tightening, as Brent crude retreated from $100/barrel.

Risk-off sentiment took over yesterday's session. Oil and gas surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East (eg., the Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea), sending global stocks lower and triggering higher sovereign yields across the board. In FX markets, the U.S. dollar index strengthened towards a one-month high.

Investor sentiment was mixed in yesterday's session. Energy prices crept up as the U.S. and Iran continued to exchange fire and Brent oil briefly topped $95. Stocks rose across Europe but the U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower amid a mixed performance of tech stocks and ahead of key Q2 earnings releases.

Global markets traded on a risk-on note in yesterday's session. Stocks rallied across advanced and emerging economies, supported by a recovery in semiconductor shares. The improvement in investor sentiment defied higher energy prices in commodity markets, as the price of Brent crude rose above $90 per barrel amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Brent oil and TTF gas whipsawed and stock markets were mixed as hostilities in the Middle East continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Tech equities steadied after last week's rout, but both the S&P 500 and the Eurostoxx closed moderately lower.

Markets ended the week on a cautious note, driven by a deterioration in investor sentiment towards the Middle East conflict and a selloff in tech stocks. Brent oil prices rose nearly 5% to close above $88 per barrel, and TTF gas surged towards €60 as the U.S. and Iran stepped up attacks across the Gulf.

Market sentiment remained downbeat due to persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued weakness in AI-related market segments. In commodities, energy prices lacked clear direction, with Brent edging lower and TTF prices rising. The dollar strengthened modestly against the euro, on expectations of a resilient U.S. economy.

Softer-than-expected US inflation data drove a decline in Treasury yields, while equity markets showed a mixed performance across the Atlantic. US June PPI came in below expectations, following the previous day’s soft CPI, while Fed officials struck a hawkish tone but signalled patience, prompting a repricing of Fed rate expectations, with the probability of an additional hike declining to around 40%. US Treasury yields declined, with a flattening of the curve led by the short end.

Risk appetite improved on Tuesday after US inflation surprised to the downside in June. The CPI print was driven by falling energy prioces but also softer core services, particularly shelter, overshadowing Warsh’s hawkish remarks in Congress, where he said he has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". Interest rate expectations for the Fed declined, with markets now pricing a second hike over the next 12 months with a 70% probability.