Financial Markets Daily Report

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Markets ended the week in a risk-on tone on Friday, supported by optimism over a potential US–Iran agreement.

Yesterday's session had a rather quiet tone on mixed signals, as sources in Iran announced that differences between the counterparts in the Middle East conflict were beginning to shrink, although there were no advances on Iran's nuclear programme. Brent prices fell by more than 2%, while natural gas closed flat.

Yesterday's session had a risk-on tone, after US President Trump made comments referring to the deal talks with Iran as being in their final stages. Crude oil prices fell, with the barrel of Brent dropping by more than 5% to settle at USD 105/barrel, while TTF also went down by a similar magnitude (closing at EUR 49/MWh) and volatility fell.

With no known progress on the peace negotiations in the Middle East, yesterday's session was driven by adjacent factors. Energy prices closed mixed as US Vice President JD Vance said neither side of the conflict wanted to take military action. Brent prices fell slightly to settle at USD 111/barrel while TTF prices rallied to close up 3%, at nearly EUR 52/MWh.

Yesterday's session was a volatile one, as news from progress in the negotiations around the conflict in the Middle East came in both directions, moving energy prices and the rest of asset prices. Brent prices closed up by more than 2%, at USD 112/barrel, while TTF prices ended the session flat at EUR 50/MWh.

A sharp risk-off session closed the week, as stalled US–Iran negotiations pushed energy prices sharply higher and reignited inflation concerns. Brent crude rose more than 3% to near USD 110/barrel, amid persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and continued uncertainty around regional energy flows.

Risk sentiment remained broadly positive for another session, as investor focus continued to shift away from Middle East tensions, with no major developments and stable energy prices (Brent crude around $105/barrel), toward macroeconomic data, corporate earnings and AI-related investment themes.

With no meaningful progress in the peace negotiations between the US and Iran, market focus shifted toward macroeconomic data releases and earnings results. Investors also remained attentive to President Trump’s arrival in China for talks with President Xi Jinping, where discussions are expected to focus on the implications of the Middle East conflict and on efforts to ease trade tensions between the two countries.

Yesterday's session was driven by increasing concerns over extended energy supply disruptions, as differences between the US and Iran regarding the negotiated terms make a peace agreement hard to reach. Energy prices climbed, with Brent up nearly 4%, while TTF posted more modest gains.

Yesterday’s session reflected renewed caution over the prospects for a resolution of the Middle East conflict, as negotiations between the US and Iran remained deadlocked, with President Trump describing Tehran’s latest proposal as “totally unacceptable”. Brent settled above $104/barrel and volatility ticked up.

Risk sentiment was mixed on Friday's session, as counterparts in the Middle East conflict remained unable to reach a peace agreement, even though President Trump announced that the ceasefire continued to hold. Energy prices ticked up, with Brent settling above $101/barrel.

Risk sentiment weakened progressively on Thursday, as early optimism over potential progress in US‑Iran talks faded by reports of skirmishes near the Strait of Hormuz, alongside news that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had again lifted restrictions on US military access to their airspace and military bases.