Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Energy markets reacted strongly to the US election results, as investors judged a Democratic-controlled Congress could constrain the administration and increase the chances of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Brent closed the session nearly 9% down, below $95/bbl, while the TTF fell 4%.
US midterm elections roil global markets. European equities traded cautiously and US indices showed a volatile session, as early projections pointed to a Democratic victory. Investors focused on control of Congress and its implications for the Trump administration's room for manoeuvre on fiscal and regulatory policy. Against this backdrop, Treasury yields declined and the dollar weakened against most G10 currencies.
Risk sentiment improved at the start of the week as signs of renewed diplomatic engagement between Iran and U.S. triggered a sharp correction in energy prices, easing inflation concerns. Brent crude fell around 10% and Dutch TTF natural gas prices also moved markedly lower, supporting both sovereign bonds and equities.
Markets ended the week on a risk-off note. Stocks tumbled, led by a selloff in technology equities, while oil and gas prices jumped amid investor concerns about a potential escalation of the Middle East conflict. U.S. and German sovereign yields nudged down, driven by safe-haven flows, while euro area peripheral spreads widened, and the USD and the EUR weakened.
Markets traded cautiously in yesterday's session as investors digested earnings releases and the Fed's and the ECB's on-hold meetings. Sovereign yields declined across the board while stocks were mixed (rising in Europe but declining in the U.S., dragged down by AI concerns). The dollar eased modestly against the major currencies, and Brent oil held near $115.
The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, in a 10-2 vote, with Governors Cook and Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike. Markets now fully price in two further hikes in the first half of 2027. Treasuries sold off on the long end, as the 10-year yield rose to 5.02%, while the 2-year edged to 4.70%. In Europe, sovereign bonds were broadly stable and spreads contracted. Elsewhere, the BoC raised rates 25bp to 2.50%, while the RBNZ unexpectedly held rates, leading to sharp fall in the NZ dollar.
Brent and TTF saw significant volatility during the session, with initial gains fading on signals from Iran regarding potential peace negotiations, before prices recovered some ground later in the day. Brent recorded its second consecutive daily decline (-1,7%), while TTF edged slightly lower.
Equities rallied on both sides of the Atlantic on Monday, as investors looked ahead to earnings releases from major technology companies and Spanish banks later this week. Oil prices remained broadly stable, while Dutch TTF natural gas gained 3% to 96.7 €/MWh, reaching its highest level since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.
Investors ended the week shaking off some of the previous risk-off mood. In the eurozone, German yields rose and peripheral spreads narrowed (particularly in France) as flight-to-quality demand faded, while weaker-than-expected October PMIs (French Composite: 48.7) reinforced expectations of an ECB pause on Thursday.
Thursday's session carried a distinctly risk-off tone, driven by tensions in the Middle East and AI investor concerns. Brent oil surged on Saudi Arabian supply disruption fears, and TTF gas rose in tandem with oil prices. Stock markets declined across the board, further dragged by a selloff in technology equities.
Sovereign bond markets remained under pressure as investors grappled with persistent inflation risks, higher energy prices and uncertainty surrounding the AI-driven growth story. US Treasury yields stayed elevated while in Europe peripheral spreads widened further amid fiscal concerns, with French yields hitting the 5% threshold for the first time since 2002, while UK gilt yields rose after stronger-than-expected inflation data.
French bond stress deepens The French spread reached 153bps, its widest since early October, as France's fiscal and political pressures continued to weigh on sovereign debt. The euro weakened as the French spread widened, with ECB Governing Council member Rehn acknowledging the spread had moved "somewhat”.