Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Sentiment deteriorated as stalled US–Iran negotiations and reports that Washington may be preparing for a prolonged conflict pushed energy prices sharply higher. Meanwhile, the Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, but highlighted rising inflation risks, with the statement drawing three dissents from officials opposed to maintaining an easing bias.
Markets remained caught between geopolitical tensions and a key run of central bank meetings. With no progress reported in US–Iran negotiations, energy prices moved higher, with Brent crude rising above USD 110/bbl for the first time in three weeks. Risk sentiment stayed subdued, while concerns over the inflationary impact of higher energy costs persisted.
Investors kicked off the week on a cautious tone, amid stalled US–Iran peace talks and ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings, including the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE. Markets will focus on policymakers’ assessment of the recent energy shock, its implications for growth and inflation, and any potential monetary policy response.
Investors ended the week on a cautious note as they assessed the prospects for renewed US–Iran talks over the weekend. Energy prices were volatile, with Brent crude finally settling around $105/bbl and European TTF gas near €45/MWh.
Uncertainty continued to dominate markets in yesterday's session, as no progress was made in the Middle East conflict. The naval blockade of the Iranian coast and of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and peace talks have not been resumed. Market volatility ticked up and Brent prices continued to rise, reaching $105/barrel.
Yesterday's session began with news that the US was extending the ceasefire until Iran retakes the negotiations, lowering market volatility. Despite this, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian coast persists, as Iran seized two vessels, thus driving Brent prices back above $100/barrel, and opening today's session nearly at $103.
Yesterday's session began on a positive tone, but sentiment deteriorated as the day progressed amid rising concerns that Iran may not participate in upcoming talks in Pakistan and with the ceasefire deadline approaching. Energy prices rose, with Brent trading above USD 98/barrel and TTF closing at EUR 42/MWh.
Yesterday's session reverted the growing risk-on sentiment from last week, after developments during the weekend unveiled the fragility of the truce between US and Iran as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lasted less than 24 hours and the two parties have substantial differences in some of the points needed for an extension of the ceasefire.
Risk sentiment improved during Friday's session, as Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be completely open to commercial traffic, news that were confirmed by President Donald Trump. Energy prices fell drastically, with Brent reaching USD 90/barrel at the close of the session and TTF settling below EUR 40/MWh, while volatility also retreated.
President Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, but investors remained cautious amid limited progress on US–Iran talks and the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices moved higher, with Brent crude rising toward $100/bbl and TTF gas moving above €42/MWh.
As no major developments were reported in the Middle East, investors remained cautiously optimistic that US–Iran talks could resume in the coming days and the ceasefire will hold. Energy prices were broadly stable to softer, with Brent crude trading around $95/barrel and TTF gas easing toward €41/MWh.
Risk sentiment improved on increasing expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East, after President Trump signalled that talks between the US and Iran could resume within two days and described the war as “very close to over”. Energy prices declined, with Brent spot falling below $95/barrel and TTF gas easing toward €42/MWh.