Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Improving prospects of a de-escalation in the Middle East supported risk sentiment, with reports suggesting both the US and Iran may be open to ending the conflict. Sovereign yields fell for a second straight session, as inflation concerns eased, while equities moved higher, led by a strong rally in the US (the S&P 500 saw its largest daily gain since May).
Concerns over the economic growth impact of the Middle East conflict gained prominence, prompting a rotation into sovereign bonds after recent selling pressure driven by inflation fears. Equity markets were mixed globally, with sharp losses in Asia, modest gains in the euro area, and slight declines in the US.
Risk sentiment deteriorated sharply into the end of the week, as escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on markets. Brent crude rose to USD 112/bbl while global equities sold off, led by US indices, with the Nasdaq now down around 10% from its recent peak.
Yesterday’s developments reignited inflation and growth concerns, driving a pick-up in market volatility, as expectations of a near-term de-escalation in the Middle East faded amid doubts over the US willingness to meet Iran’s demands. Brent crude surged to $108/barrel.
Yesterday's session showed a risk-on sentiment, after news of Iran reportedly reviewing a peace proposal from the US increased the expectations of the conflict ending in the short term. Energy prices slid more than 2%, but have rebounded as of this morning as the strikes continue while the two countries review the terms.
Yesterday’s session was marked by elevated volatility and choppy trading, as investors weighed conflicting signals around potential US–Iran talks. While President Trump suggested progress, Iranian officials denied that negotiations were taking place, adding uncertainty to the outlook. Oil prices moved higher on these tensions.
Yesterday’s session saw a sharp turnaround in sentiment. Markets initially opened under pressure, with equities declining and sovereign yields rising amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices. Sentiment shifted after President Trump announced a temporary halt to planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, following reports of constructive talks between the Washington and Tehran. Brent prices quickly fell just below $100/barrel.
Friday's session was again driven by inflationary concerns amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent prices settled over $110/barrel and market volatility rose as President Trump pledged to send more troops to Iran and to intervene in the Kharg island to reopen the Strair of Hormuz.
Central banks took center stage, with a broadly hawkish tilt across major economies. The ECB left the depo rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected, but highlighted stagflationary risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. Euro area sovereign yields edged higher, as markets now fully price in two rate hikes in 2026, while the euro recovered and equities declined sharply.
The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, while striking a hawkish tone and projecting higher inflation. Chair Powell noted that the economic impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain but could add to inflationary pressures and weigh on activity. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, as expectations for a rate cut in 2026 declined toward 50%, while equities ended lower and the dollar strenthened.
Risk sentiment continued to improve and volatility eased during yesterday’s session, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Global equities advanced, with gains led by energy stocks, while the US dollar weakened. Brent crude rose further above $100/barrel, with futures markets pointing to a decline toward $82/barrel by year-end.
Signs of easing tensions in energy markets supported a modest improvement in risk sentiment. Reports of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, alongside comments from the IEA on potential reserve releases, pushed Brent crude down by around 3% to $100/barrel. Global equities rebounded, volatility declined, and the US dollar weakened (EUR/USD rose toward 1.15).