Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Thursday's session carried a cautious tone. Market concerns over the sustainability of AI investments weighed on chipmakers and technology equities, but the main U.S. stock market benchmarks ended higher while European indices were mixed. Brent oil and TTF natural gas prices nudged down.
Moderate risk-off sentiment prevailed across markets following the upside surprise in U.S. inflation, while oil prices remained elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, standing at 3.7% YoY, driven primarily by energy prices, particularly gasoline.
World stocks fell, led by chipmakers and concerns over AI spending. Wall Street closed lower (the Nasdaq 100 dragged by semiconductors) and Asian shares hit a two-month low before steadying as the selloff eased. In Europe, the STOXX 600 touched a one-week high on softer oil and yields. US big-bank earnings (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo) kicked off to mixed reviews.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained at the center of investors’ attention on Monday. Oil prices moved higher following attacks on Saudi Arabia, offsetting earlier optimism around Russian diesel exports and a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire announced by Trump over the weekend. Brent crude rose 1.8% to USD 106.7/bbl.
Energy prices rose on Thursday amid reports of intensified Iranian attacks on tankers crossing Hormuz, before Trump ruled out new US attacks on Iran ahead of the midterms. Eurozone short-term inflation expectations rose, while ECB and Fed hike expectations remained stable, as officials struck a cautious, mildly hawkish tone and did not endorse an October move.
A broad risk-off move dominated Wednesday's session, with Brent crude remaining above $100/barrel amid reports of increased Iranian attacks on tankers crossing Hormuz. In the eurozone, concerns over France's fiscal situation deepened after comments from the Banque de France governor ruling out an ECB intervention.
Risk sentiment improved on Tuesday as Treasury yields retreated from multi-decade highs and energy-related inflation concerns continued to ease. Technology stocks led gains, with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh record while the Eurostoxx50 rose 0.5%.
Financial markets started the week in a cautious tone. Tensions in euro area sovereign bond markets remained in focus, even though the French spread narrowed, as peripherals were flat. Sovereign curves steepened on both sides of the Atlantic as short-term references fell, while long-term ones rose. The euro weakened against its main peers.
A soft US September jobs report, with payroll growth below expectations (29k vs 90k expected) but not weak enough to trigger growth concerns, alongside mixed Factory and Capital Goods orders data, prompted a modest upward reassessment of Fed rate expectations. Markets now price a hike in December and at least two more thereafter. Treasury yields rose.
Thursday's session carried a sharply divergent tone between the two sides of the Atlantic. France's risk premium reached 140 bps as investors intensified their fiscal concerns and continued to lead a widening in sovereign spreads, with yields on German Bunds dropping amid safe-haven flows. European stocks fell markedly, with France leading losses.
Wednesday's session carried a cautious tone. U.S. stocks were mixed and European equities fell broadly, while crude oil edged higher and TTF natural gas surged sharply, reversing recent declines. In FX markets, the dollar strengthened moderately, weighing on the euro.
Investors traded cautiously in Tuesday's session. Equities posted losses across the U.S. and Europe, and sovereign yields were volatile even as energy prices declined. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surged to levels not seen since the early 2000s, despite finding a partial reprieve after NY Fed President John Williams signaled no urgency to deliver the next rate hike.
Monday's session exhibited a risk-off tone after U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent oil and TTF gas closed higher, and stocks declined across the board, with U.S. equities underperforming Europe (the former was dragged down by its IT overweight, while the latter was cushioned by its energy-heavy composition).
