Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Wednesday saw a risk-off session in financial markets, as stronger-than-expected September PMIs, hawkish ECB and Fed comments, and higher Brent prices prompted an upward repricing of inflation expectations and policy rates, with markets pricing more than four ECB hikes and almost four Fed hikes over the next 12 months.
Financial markets had a mixed session on Tuesday. Brent prices declined after Saudi Arabia moved to restart its East-West pipeline, while Trump reported some diplomatic progress with Iranian representatives.
Financial markets started the week on a positive note, as hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the war in Iran caused energy prices to fall, pushing inflation expectations lower on both sides of the Atlantic. This also eased central banks' rate hike expectations, although investors still price in three rate hikes by both the ECB and the Fed over the next 12 months.
Markets closed the week on a mixed note on Friday. Market odds for further interest rate hikes rose, with investors discounting three hikes for the Fed and three to four for the ECB over the next 12 months. The ECB's Lagarde and Vujcic pushed back somewhat against these market expectations, explaining that the bank will look beyond higher energy prices alone when deciding its monetary policy.
Thursday's session carried a broadly constructive tone. Equities rallied across most advanced and emerging economies, with the technology sector as a standout performer. In commodity markets, crude oil retreated for a second consecutive session (amid reports that China is asking Iran to rein in Houthi attacks). TTF natural gas also declined.
Wednesday's session delivered a broadly constructive tone, with European equities outperforming their U.S. counterparts in a session dominated by the Fed's rate hike. European indices closed higher across the board while U.S. markets were more mixed, with the S&P 500 eking out modest gains for most of the session before closing lower after the Fed's meeting.
The risk-off tone continued into Tuesday's session. Oil surged and extended September's run, driven by supply concerns and the disruption of Saudi Arabia's exports via the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Compounding the pressure, markets moved to a near-certainty on a Fed rate hike today.
Markets started the week in a distinctly risk-off mood, shaped by a combination of surging energy prices, AI sector uneasiness, and strong market expectations for a Fed rate hike ahead of Wednesday's policy decision. Equities fell broadly, with European indices underperforming their U.S. counterparts.
Markets pared risk aversion in the final session of the week. While August U.S. inflation figures reinforced market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike as soon as this week (to 88% from 72% on Thursday), stock markets closed higher across Europe and the U.S. as oil and gas retreated from their weekly highs.
A renewed surge in energy prices, which sent Brent crude oil above $100 and TTF natural gas close to €80, set a risk-off tone across markets. Inflation expectations rose, as did expectations of central bank tightening, with markets pricing around 85 bps of ECB tightening over the next 12 months (starting with 25 bps today), and almost 70 bps for the Fed.
A risk-off mood prevailed across financial markets on Tuesday, as energy prices rose, with Brent crude oil nearing $100 and TTF natural gas climbing above €75. Market-based inflation expectations increased, particularly in the US, as did expectations for higher interest rates, with a Fed hike next week priced at a 60% probability.
The week started with US markets closed for Labour Day. Elsewhere, energy prices edged higher, lifting eurozone market-based inflation expectations as well as ECB rate expectations. A hike at Thursday's meeting is priced by investors as almost certain, as well as two additional increases discounted over the next twelve months.
Markets closed on a mixed note on Friday, as a blowout US employment report showed job creation well above expectations in August (162,000 vs. 55,000 expected), alongside an upward revision to July's figures. Hawkish comments from the Fed's Hammack also pushed up market expectations for a Fed rate hike, with a September move priced in again.
