Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
As no major developments were reported in the Middle East, investors remained cautiously optimistic that US–Iran talks could resume in the coming days and the ceasefire will hold. Energy prices were broadly stable to softer, with Brent crude trading around $95/barrel and TTF gas easing toward €41/MWh.
Risk sentiment improved on increasing expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East, after President Trump signalled that talks between the US and Iran could resume within two days and described the war as “very close to over”. Energy prices declined, with Brent spot falling below $95/barrel and TTF gas easing toward €42/MWh.
Markets were driven by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, following the US decision to impose a blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in higher energy prices, with Brent crude trading around $100/barrel and TTF gas rising by around 5% above €45/MWh.
During Friday's session, sentiment moderated following the recent risk-on momentum, as investors headed into the weekend focused on developments in the Middle East and the prospect of US–Iran talks. Brent crude traded around USD 95/barrel, while TTF gas declined by around 5% to €43/MWh.
After a clear risk-on tone in markets on Wednesday's session as a ceasefire agreement was reached in the Middle East, yesterday opened with a correction after Iran declared that Israel was violating the deal by attacking Lebanon, triggering concerns around its fragility. This concerns diluted during the session as parties involved showed a more diplomatic stance.
Yesterday's session was driven by news that a two-week ceasefire agreement had been reached between the US and Iran, with a potential reopening of the strait of Hormuz that curbed inflationary concerns. Energy prices fell sharply, leaving Brent below USD 95/barrel and TTF at EUR 45/MWh, and volatility decreased as well.
In yesterday’s session, investors traded with a focus on geopolitical developments ahead of the ceasefire deadline set by President Trump. Markets opened with a risk-off tone but pared losses as the session progressed, particularly in the US, and energy prices rose. An agreement was ultimately reached shortly after midnight CET.
Yesterday's session was a quiet one, with investors assessing mixed signals of the progress toward a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East conflict, while US President Trump threatened of increasing the strikes would the Strait of Ormuz not reopen before noon today. Brent crude prices closed near $110/barrel after a choppy trading session.
Improving prospects of a de-escalation in the Middle East supported risk sentiment, with reports suggesting both the US and Iran may be open to ending the conflict. Sovereign yields fell for a second straight session, as inflation concerns eased, while equities moved higher, led by a strong rally in the US (the S&P 500 saw its largest daily gain since May).
Concerns over the economic growth impact of the Middle East conflict gained prominence, prompting a rotation into sovereign bonds after recent selling pressure driven by inflation fears. Equity markets were mixed globally, with sharp losses in Asia, modest gains in the euro area, and slight declines in the US.
Risk sentiment deteriorated sharply into the end of the week, as escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on markets. Brent crude rose to USD 112/bbl while global equities sold off, led by US indices, with the Nasdaq now down around 10% from its recent peak.