Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Softer-than-expected US inflation data drove a decline in Treasury yields, while equity markets showed a mixed performance across the Atlantic. US June PPI came in below expectations, following the previous day’s soft CPI, while Fed officials struck a hawkish tone but signalled patience, prompting a repricing of Fed rate expectations, with the probability of an additional hike declining to around 40%. US Treasury yields declined, with a flattening of the curve led by the short end.
Risk appetite improved on Tuesday after US inflation surprised to the downside in June. The CPI print was driven by falling energy prioces but also softer core services, particularly shelter, overshadowing Warsh’s hawkish remarks in Congress, where he said he has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". Interest rate expectations for the Fed declined, with markets now pricing a second hike over the next 12 months with a 70% probability.
Risk aversion intensified on Monday after President Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade for Iranian ships and imposed a transit levy on non-Iranian cargo, fuelling concerns over energy supply disruptions. Brent crude oil prices rose sharply, inflation expectations moved higher and market volatility increased.
Markets closed Friday on a mixed note as attention remained on the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, although Trump signalled openness to a deal with Iran. Oil prices ended little changed after a choppy session and TTF gas prices fell.
Market sentiment improved during yesterday's session, with oil prices falling by more than 2%, as investors valued that negotiations between US and Iran remain open, despite Hormuz clashes. On the other hand, TTF gas continued to climb, on a bleaker supply outlook. Gold stabilised, as investors assessed higher geopolitical risks and tighter monetary policy.
Yesterday's session was marked by news that the US and Iran were resuming the strikes as the interim deal between the two countries to end the war was over. Energy prices peaked near European closing, with Brent crude reaching USD 80/barrel to further ease and close the session at USD 78. TTF closed the session up 5% at EUR 49/MWh.
Oil prices rose after attacks near the Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns about disruptions to oil shipments and the US tightened sanctions on Iranian crude. Brent climbed 3.0%, above $74 per barrel, while TTF gas jumped by more than 5% and gold fell.
Commodity markets continued to trade on a relatively positive note in yesterday's session, as investors remained optimistic about the prospects of the US-Iran agreement. Brent crude prices closed flat, nearing pre-war levels, while TTF natural gas prices fell to EUR 44/MWh, correcting after several days of increases last week.
With no major developments in the peace talks from the Middle East, Friday's session was driven by an increase in risk sentiment, with investors rotating from fixed income to the stock market in the euro area and falling volatility. In the US, markets were closed due to a bank holiday.
Financial markets traded mixed on Thursday as softer-than-expected June payrolls slightly reinforced expectations of a less restrictive Fed stance. June non-farm payrolls showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in job growth, alongside a decline in labour force participation to a five-year low, while Fed’s Daly indicated monetary policy remains moderately restrictive.
During yestrerday's session, energy prices continued to fall on increased optimism about reaching a long-term peace agreement in the Middle East, after President Trump was positive about the talks held in Qatar. Brent crude and TTF natural gas prices fell below USD 72/barrel and EUR 43/MWh, respectively.
As US-Iran talks resumed yesterday, Brent crude prices closed the session flat, while TTF natural gas prices advanced slightly, to settle above EUR 43/MWh. In other commodities, gold posted its biggest quarterly losses in a decade, closing around 4,000$/once, while market volatility eased.