Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
With no meaningful progress in the peace negotiations between the US and Iran, market focus shifted toward macroeconomic data releases and earnings results. Investors also remained attentive to President Trump’s arrival in China for talks with President Xi Jinping, where discussions are expected to focus on the implications of the Middle East conflict and on efforts to ease trade tensions between the two countries.
Yesterday's session was driven by increasing concerns over extended energy supply disruptions, as differences between the US and Iran regarding the negotiated terms make a peace agreement hard to reach. Energy prices climbed, with Brent up nearly 4%, while TTF posted more modest gains.
Yesterday’s session reflected renewed caution over the prospects for a resolution of the Middle East conflict, as negotiations between the US and Iran remained deadlocked, with President Trump describing Tehran’s latest proposal as “totally unacceptable”. Brent settled above $104/barrel and volatility ticked up.
Risk sentiment was mixed on Friday's session, as counterparts in the Middle East conflict remained unable to reach a peace agreement, even though President Trump announced that the ceasefire continued to hold. Energy prices ticked up, with Brent settling above $101/barrel.
Risk sentiment weakened progressively on Thursday, as early optimism over potential progress in US‑Iran talks faded by reports of skirmishes near the Strait of Hormuz, alongside news that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had again lifted restrictions on US military access to their airspace and military bases.
Markets traded higher on Wednesday as optimism that the US and Iran were nearing a deal to ease hostilities pushed crude oil and natural gas prices sharply lower.
Risk appetite improved on Tuesday after senior officials from Iran and the US confirmed that the truce remains in place and that negotiations are ongoing. In this context, crude oil prices fell, although Brent remained around USD 110 per barrel.
Risk sentiment deteriorated on Monday, particularly in Europe, as oil prices rebounded sharply. Renewed Middle East tensions and fears of supply disruptions amplified growth and inflation concerns. Sovereign bond yields rose on both sides of the Atlantic by a similar magnitude, while euro area peripheral risk premia also widened.
Risk sentiment improved late in the week as crude prices eased. European markets were closed on Friday for the May Day holiday, while US and OTC markets remained open. Here, risk sentiment was supported by lower crude prices for the second day in a row, following an Iranian proposal regarding negotiations with the US.
Sentiment deteriorated as stalled US–Iran negotiations and reports that Washington may be preparing for a prolonged conflict pushed energy prices sharply higher. Meanwhile, the Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, but highlighted rising inflation risks, with the statement drawing three dissents from officials opposed to maintaining an easing bias.
Markets remained caught between geopolitical tensions and a key run of central bank meetings. With no progress reported in US–Iran negotiations, energy prices moved higher, with Brent crude rising above USD 110/bbl for the first time in three weeks. Risk sentiment stayed subdued, while concerns over the inflationary impact of higher energy costs persisted.
Investors kicked off the week on a cautious tone, amid stalled US–Iran peace talks and ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings, including the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE. Markets will focus on policymakers’ assessment of the recent energy shock, its implications for growth and inflation, and any potential monetary policy response.