Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
During yesterday's session, investors continued to digest the implications of the US Supreme Court's ruling to strike down US emergency tariffs. While the global tariff stands at 10%, the Trump administration is reportedly working to increase it to 15%. Against this backdrop, government bond yields closed flat on both sides of the Atlantic, in a day of choppy trading.
Yesterday's session was dominated by heightened global uncertainty following the US Supreme Court's ruling on Friday, which struck down the emergency tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Investors adopted a risk-off stance ahead of a week with no major data releases. Market volatility picked up, reflecting elevated policy uncertainty.
The US Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s global tariffs, ruling that Trump had exceeded his legal authority. In response, he said he would invoke alternative legislation to levy tariffs and announced a blanket 15% tariff on imports from all other countries.
Caution prevailed in yesterday’s session amid the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Equity markets paused their recovery, while sovereign yield curves saw no material moves. The US dollar strengthened to a four‑month high against the euro.
Market sentiment turned positive following the release of robust data confirming the resilience of the US economy and continued inflation containment in the euro area. Equity markets posted broad-based gains, led by cyclical sectors.
Geopolitics were in investors’ focus yesterday, after Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran and the US had reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of a potential nuclear agreement. Commodity prices declined on the news, with Brent crude edging lower toward $67.5/barrel, European natural gas falling below €30/MWh, and gold also retreating.
Trading activity was subdued at the start of the week, with US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and mainland Chinese exchanges shut for the Lunar New Year holidays. With no major macroeconomic releases elsewhere, markets lacked clear catalysts, resulting in limited price action.
US inflation surprised slightly to the downside, with headline CPI easing to 2.4% yoy (vs. 2.5% expected), down from 2.7% in December. The softer reading boosted expectations of further Fed easing, with money markets now pricing a 50% probability of a third 25bp rate cut in 2026. US Treasury yields declined by around 5bp across the curve.
Major stock markets recorded another session of declines, driven by concerns over the potentially disruptive impact of AI across multiple sectors, as investors await Q4 2025 corporate earnings releases.
Yesterday's data releases showed a stronger-than-expected labour market in the US, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130k in January and unemployment rate easing 0.1pp to 4.3%. The data reinforced market expectations that the Fed will deliver two rate cuts this year, likely starting in the summer, rather than signaling an earlier or more aggressive easing cycle.
In yesterday's session, weaker-than-expected US retail sales in December combined with expected lower consumption due to harsh winter conditions, reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts during the year, with the first one occurring in June. Today key employment data will be released which should add further clarity on the interest-rate path.
Yesterday session was risk-on, with global stocks advancing, led by Japan, where the Nikkei-225 registered gains of nearly 4% after the Liberal Democratic Party obtained the supermajority in the Lower House elections, allowing prime minister Sanae Takaichi to continue pursuing expansionary fiscal policies.