Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Financial markets had a mixed session on Wednesday. The US Treasury curve flattened, with short term yields rising due to stronger than expected data: initial jobless claims came in below expectations, and durable goods orders (excluding non-defense and aviation goods) for September posted a positive surprise.
Markets kept the positive tone on Tuesday, as Fed's Miran advocated for aggressive rate cuts. Separately, a flurry of US data suggested consumer fatigue (retail sales growth decelerated in September, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in November below expections), lifting expectations for a December rate cut and pushing Treasury yields lower.
Markets opened the week on a risk-on tone, as Fed's Waller also favoured a December rate cut, much like Williams had done on Friday. Waller favoured the cut on the basis of a soft and weakening labour market, which pushed US Treasury yields lower and brought market expectations of a cut in December to 75%.
Markets ended Friday mixed as Fed guidance revived rate-cut bets, tempering weak sentiment in Asia and Europe. Comments from Fed Williams suggesting December interest rate cuts could align with inflation goals boosted markets' expectations for such event and drove US Treasury yields slightly down.
Markets opened on a positive note after strong Nvidia earnings results, with a clear risk-on tone in Europe as equities rose and sovereign yields edged higher. But sentiment reversed sharply in the US after the European close, leading to a broad pullback in equities, with an intraday swing of nearly 5% in the Nasdaq, as the VIX hit its highest since April.
Markets had a mixed session. US stocks advanced ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, while most euro area indices retreated. US Treasury yields rose after the BLS announced it will not publish the October and November jobs data before the Fed's next meeting, leading markets to reduce expectations of a rate cut in December to 30%. Euro area sovereign yields were flat.
The sour mood in equity markets extended for another session amid continued worries about high valuations in the tech sector. Global stock indices fell, with losses led by euro area equities, and accumulated losses of over 3% in a week. The VIX volatility index is up 42% week-over-week and trading above 24 points. Amid risk-averse sentiment, the dollar rose.
The week began with a risk-off session as investors awaited several US tech mega-cap earnings reports amid concerns about high valuations in the sector. Stocks sold off globally, while sovereign yields edged lower and the dollar strengthened, as President Trump's decision to exempt a large list of agricultural products from reciprocal tariffs barely impacted the market.
Risk-off session to end the week, as concerns about high valuations in the technology sector and doubts on whether the Federal Reserve will lower rates in December, weighed on investor sentiment. Stocks sold off in the euro area and ended flat in the US, albeit having started the session with losses.
Yesterday's main news was the reopening of the US government after the largest shutdown in history. However, Treasury yields rose as markets priced a lower probability of a December rate cut amid lingering uncertainty over the inflation outlook and growing divisions among Fed officials.
As it has happened 4 times in the past, near the ending of a US government shutdown, equity markets rallied in Europe. In the US, however, main indices were mixed, with the Nasdaq registering losses as investors remained cautious about too-high valuations of tech companies. Last night, Trump signed into law the spending bill, allowing the US government to reopen.
In yesterday’s session, euro area sovereign yields edged lower with little news to trade on, while US treasuries did not trade as bond markets were closed due to Veterans Day holiday. The dollar weakened as investors continued to digest the generalized cautious tone of Fed officials on a rate cut on December, while the Japanese yen hit a nine month low.