Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Markets turned risk-off on Tuesday as Trump renewed tariff threats against Europe linked to his controversial Greenland acquisition proposal. Equity indices fell on both sides of the Atlantic, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading losses. Implied volatility rose, pushing the VIX higher.
European investors began the week with a risk-off tone, as US markets were closed for the Martin Luther King holiday. Sentiment deteriorated after Trump announced plans to impose new tariffs on European countries siding with Denmark in the Greenland dispute and the EU hinted at possible retaliation.
Financial markets ended Friday on a mixed note ahead of a long weekend in the US, where markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Day. US Treasury yields moved higher following mixed macro data: industrial production rose, while the NAHB Index signaled continued weakness in housing construction. European sovereign yields also edged up, with the French spread widening after PM Lecornu announced it will amend again the budget draft to secure parliamentary approval.
Risk sentiment improved during yesterday’s session. US Treasury yields edged higher after weekly unemployment benefit claims declined, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold in January. Equities advanced, supported by renewed optimism around artificial intelligence following strong results from Taiwanese semiconductors.
Risk-off session as geopolitical risks remained in focus. Oil prices climbed for a fifth consecutive session, with Brent crude gaining more than 10% over the past five days to trade around $66/barrel. Gold reached fresh record highs above $4,600/ounce. On both sides of the Atlantic, sovereign yields edged lower, while equities modestly retreated.
Markets showed limited reaction to the release of US December inflation data, which confirmed headline and core inflation unchanged at 2.7% and 2.6% yoy, respectively. US Treasury yields ended the session broadly flat, equities edged lower, and the US dollar was little changed against most major peers. Futures markets continue to price in the first Fed rate cut in June.
The week began on a cautious note, with US Treasury yields remaining flat, equities posting modest gains, and the US dollar edging lower amid reports that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been threatened with a criminal indictment related to the costs of a building renovation, which he described as a pretext by President Trump to exert influence over monetary policy.
Investors ended the week on a mixed note after US December jobs data showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.4%, prompting markets to push back expectations for the next Fed rate cut from March to June. As a result, 2-year Treasury yields edged higher and the US dollar strengthened. Equities nonetheless advanced to new highs.
On Thursday, German Bund yields rebounded by +5bp, partially reversing the broad decline seen earlier this week, following a positive surprise in the country’s industrial orders data in November (+5.6% mom). Other euro area sovereign yields were broadly stable, leading to a further narrowing of peripheral spreads.
Euro area sovereign bond yields continued to fall during yesterday's session, as earlier data releases that showed a lower-than-expected inflation in France and Germany were complemented with an inflation in the euro area in December of a 2% annual variation. Expectations of an ECB rate hike fell as well, as now the market does not price one until 2028.
In yesterday's session, European government bond yields broadly fell after December inflation numbers for Germany and France came in lower than expected, lowering odds of future rate hikes from the ECB. Investors will be attentive to today's release of December CPI in the euro area, looking for more hints on the rate path in the short term.
Yesterday's session ended on a mixed tone with relatively small movements, as investors traded cautiously ahead of today's important data releases in the US, particularly Q3 GDP, which will be released today. Sovereign yields barely changed, with a small flattening of the US curve, while European stock indices receded and the US ones ticked higher, pushed by tech firms.