The war in the Middle East could generate a new shock to the global economy that would also affect the Spanish economy. In this article, we analyse the three main channels through which it could do so: the first is inflation, through the rising cost of energy, other products originating from the Persian Gulf, and increased maritime transport costs; the second is external demand, if the conflict hampers the growth of our trading partners; and the third is the financial channel, in the event of rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions. In addition to these three factors, there is the effect of fiscal policy; indeed, the government already announced a first set of measures on 20 March to cushion the impact of the shock.