Castile and León

• Castile and León’s GDP is 4.7% of the national total, which places it seventh among all regions.
• In terms of its population, with almost 2.4 million inhabitants, 4.9% of the total, it is the third most highly populated region. It is the second region with the highest median age, only behind Asturias, as 27.3% of its population is over 65 years old (national average of 20.7%).
• Its GDP per capita stands at 31,149 euros, 4.5% below the Spanish average. The region has been catching up in recent years, against a backdrop of demographic stagnation and modest economic growth.
• In terms of its productive sectors, Castile and León is notable for the relative importance of agriculture (5.8% vs. 2.7% in Spain), the extractive industry (6.9% vs. 4.2%) and manufacturing (15.3% vs. 11.9%), where the agri-food, motor vehicle and chemical/pharmaceutical industries are particularly prominent. However, the share is lower in trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (24.0% vs. 28.1%) and industry-related services (22.0% vs. 29.7%).
• In recent years, the region has intensified its export-oriented approach and the weight of goods exports relative to GDP exceeds the Spanish average (26.8% vs. 24.1%). In 2024, its goods exports amounted to 20.01 billion euros, which represents 5.2% of Spanish exports. The leading export sectors are the motor vehicle industry (39.3% of the total), food (16.5%), especially meat, and chemical products (9.7%). The region accounts for 54% of the tyres and inner tubes exported by Spain.

According to our estimates, Castile and León’s GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2025, slightly less than the Spanish economy as a whole (2.9%). Although employment and consumer spending are growing more modestly than average, there is a more positive trend in industry and exports, bolstered by a stronger performing motor vehicle industry.

CaixaBank Research’s forecasts point to Castile and León continuing along an expansionary path in 2026, albeit at a slower pace, with GDP growth of 2.0% (2.1% for Spain). The weakness of the European economy and the increase in tariffs could affect trade flows and industrial activity; nevertheless, we expect the positive momentum in motor vehicle industry sales to be maintained and for improved financing conditions and NGEU funds to support investment. Easing inflation, rising wages, falling interest rates and the gradual reduction of the savings rate will boost household spending.

The labour market in Castile and León is slightly more sluggish than the country as a whole. In 2024, the average number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security grew by 2.1% year-on-year (2.4% in Spain), while in October of this year the pace slowed to 1.4% year-on-year (vs. 2.4%), highlighting the strong performance of education, health, and the public sector. In turn, the unemployment rate in Q3 2025 stood at 8.7%, almost 2 points below the national average.

Consumption remains somewhat sluggish in the region, in view of the growth of the volume of retail and consumer goods sales. After a modest increase in 2024 (0.9% vs. 2.1% nationwide), the first nine months of 2025 show some reactivation, although still below the average (2.4% year-on-year vs. 3.9%), making it one of the few regions that have not yet recovered the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 (–1.6% vs. +7.8% in Spain). In turn, after a modest increase in 2024 (4.5% vs. 7.1% on average), passenger car registrations surged strongly in January-September 2025 (12.7% year-on-year vs. 14.8%).

The industry in Castile and León has been among the most dynamic in recent years, having overcome the severe impact of bottlenecks and high energy costs in 2022, partly due to the recovery of the motor vehicle industry. Indeed, industrial production grew by 3.9% in 2024, this being the highest growth of all regions (0.7% in Spain), and the positive trend has continued into 2025, albeit somewhat dampened, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% up to August (vs. 0.6%), based on unadjusted data for seasonal and calendar effects.

Castile and León’s exports of goods are recording very good figures. In 2024, mainly thanks to the dynamism of the motor vehicle sector, exports grew at the fastest rate among all regions (16.5% vs. 0.2% in Spain), while this year, with data up to August, growth has moderated but continues to exceed the average (2.5% year-on-year vs. 0.3%), supported by the motor vehicle sector and, above all, by capital goods (especially electrical appliances and engines).