Castile and León

According to our estimates, Castile and León’s GDP fell by 10.0% in 2020, slightly less than the Spanish economy as a whole (–10.8%). This better performance was due to a greater prevalence of industries among its productive sectors that were less hard hit by the crisis, such as agri-food and the public sectors, in addition to it being less dependent on tourism, especially from abroad. 

Content available in
October 28th, 2021
Castilla y León
2,401,000
inhabitants (2019)
€24,886
GDP per capita (2019)
4.8%
of Spanish GDP (2019)
3.9%
GDP growth forecast (2021)
Regional economic structure and position
  • Castile and León’s GDP accounts for 4.8% of the national total.
  • In terms of demographics, its 2.4 million inhabitants represent 5.1% of Spain’s total population.
  • GDP per capita stands at 24,886 euros, which is 5.8% below the Spanish average.
  • In terms of its productive sectors, Castile and León is notable for the relative importance of agriculture (5.2% vs. the Spanish average of 2.9%), its manufacturing industry (16.0% vs. 12.3%) and general government (21.3% vs. 18.0%). However, it has less activity in trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants and leisure (24.5% vs. 28.3%).
  • This region is notable for being highly export-oriented. Exports of goods account for 24.6% of regional GDP, slightly above the Spanish average (23.4%). In 2020, Castile and León exported goods worth 12.493 billion euros, representing 4.8% of Spanish exports.
  • The main exporting sectors are the motor vehicle industry (32.0% of all exports) and, some way behind, boilers and mechanical machines and devices (11.6%), and pharmaceutical products (6.4%).

Table of structural indicators

 

   

1989

1999

2009

 

2019

GDP per capita

Euros

 

6,770

13,085

21,509

 

24,886

100 = Spain

 

91.1

89.5

93.3

 

94.2

Population

Thousands of inhabitants

 

2,560

2,473

2,547

 

2,401

Average annual growth over the decade (%)

 

0.1

0.3

0.3

 

0.6

% of total in Spain

 

6.6

6.1

5.5

 

5.1

% of population > 65 years old

 

5.7

6.2

5.1

 

6.0

Exports of goods as a proportion of GDP

%

 

...

22.9

17.1

 

24.6

 

 
Macroeconomic situation

According to our estimates, Castile and León’s GDP fell by 10.0% in 2020, slightly less than the Spanish economy as a whole (–10.8%). This better performance was due to a greater prevalence of industries among its productive sectors that were less hard hit by the crisis, such as agri-food and the public sectors, in addition to it being less dependent on tourism, especially from abroad.

CaixaBank Research’s forecasts point to Castile and León’s GDP growing by 3.9% in 2021, far below the national average (5.0%), due to the lesser importance of activities that are going to gain the most momentum (tourism-related services). GDP will stand at around 6.5% below pre-crisis levels, a similar shortfall as the economy as a whole. The recovery in the first half of the year was aided by the upswing in consumption and positive employment and export environments, especially in the motor vehicle industry.

GDP

Last actualization: 28 October 2021 - 09:32

The pandemic crisis had a slightly smaller impact on Castile and León’s labour market than the country as a whole in 2020: the number of workers affiliated to Social Security fell by 1.9%, compared with –2.1% in Spain. There has been a gradual improvement throughout this year, with the number of workers affiliated to Social Security slightly exceeding the levels in August 2019, by 0.2%. However, active employment (excluding furloughed workers) is still 0.6% lower. The number of furloughed workers has fallen by 27,400 to 9,500 since the end of 2020, representing 1.3% of registered workers affiliated to Social Security (1.7% for Spain as a whole). In turn, as of Q2 2021, the employment rate is 12.6%, far lower than the national average (15.3%).

The CaixaBank consumption indicator shows a steeper decline in 2020 than in Spain as a whole (–14.4% vs. –13.6%). However, the subsequent recovery has been stronger and the current levels are higher than they were in 2019: in the first week of September, card spending was 10.6% higher than in the same period in 2019, compared with a 9.5% increase in the country as a whole.

After recording an identical fall to the national average in 2020 (–9.2%), industrial production has performed worse over the course of 2021, falling further below pre-pandemic levels: in July it was 7.2% lower than the level recorded in July 2019 (–5.9% for Spain).

Exports of goods declined steeply in 2020 (–14.7% vs. –10.2% in the country as a whole), mainly due to the collapse in sales in the motor vehicle industry, Castile and León’s leading source of exports. From January to July 2021, there was an upswing effect: mainly thanks to the recovery of the motor vehicle industry, cumulative growth stood at 18.5% year-on-year and 2.4% compared with the same period in 2019 (the national average was 2.8%).

Registered workers affiliated to Social Security

Last actualization: 28 October 2021 - 09:38

Industrial production

Last actualization: 28 October 2021 - 09:40

Table of indicators

 

 

2002-2007 average

2008-2014 average

2015-2018 average

2019

2020

2021

Latest figure

Activity and prices

Real GDP*
(% year-on-year change)

2.7

–1.5

2.3

0.9

–10.0

2020

3.5

–1.3

2.8

2.0

–10.8

Retail trade**
(% cumulative annual change)

–2.8

0.3

1.6

–4.7

–5.3

July-21

–3.7

1.8

2.5

–5.6

–3.4

Industrial production index**
(% cumulative annual change)

2.0

–3.4

–0.5

–0.9

–9.2

–5.1

July-21

1.9

–4.2

1.7

0.6

–9.2

–4.1

Service activity index**
(% cumulative annual change)

–3.1

3.0

2.0

–10.5

0.6

July-21

–3.4

5.5

3.9

–15.6

–6.4

Consumer price index
(% year-on-year change)

3.0

1.5

1.2

0.8

–0.6

3.5

July-21

3.1

1.4

1.1

0.7

-0.3

2.9

                 

Labour market

Registered employment affiliated to Social Security**
(% year-on-year change)

3.0

–2.4

2.0

1.3

–1.9

0.2

August-21

3.5

–2.3

3.4

2.6

–2.1

0.8

Unemployment rate
(% active population)

9.4

16.9

15.1

11.6

12.1

12.6

Q2 2021

10.0

20.8

18.5

14.1

15.5

15.3

Unemployment rate for under 25s
(% active population < 25)

21.1

39.4

37.9

29.7

34.6

32.4

Q2 2021

20.4

44.5

41.5

32.6

49.6

38.4

                 

Public sector

Public deficit
(% of GDP)

–0.6

–4.3

–0.8

–0.7

0.0

2020

–0.3

–2.5

–0.8

–0.6

–0.2

Autonomous Communities public debt
(% of GDP)

3.1

10.4

20.4

20.9

24.0

24.3

Q1 2021

6.0

13.8

24.5

23.7

27.1

27.6

                 

Real estate market

Housing prices
(% year-on-year change)

–7.0

2.3

4.8

2.4

2.6

Q2 2021

–6.8

5.8

5.1

2.1

3.3

Housing sales
(% cumulative annual change)

–11.8

10.5

1.0

–11.1

42.7

June-21

–8.7

13.4

–2.4

–17.2

31.8

                 

Foreign sector and tourism

Exports of goods**
(% cumulative annual change)

4.3

4.8

1.0

–4.4

–14.7

2.4

July-21

6.8

4.2

4.5

2.0

–10.2

2.8

Tourist overnight stays**
(% cumulative annual change)

6.1

–1.9

6.5

1.6

–55.1

–44.1

July-21

2.4

1.1

3.4

0.6

–69.3

–63.9

Notes: *The 2020 GDP figure for Autonomous Communities is an estimate made by CaixaBank Research. ** The changes from the same period in 2019 are calculated.

Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), the Bank of Spain, the Ministry of Labour, Migration and Social Security (MITRAMISS), the Ministry of Finance and DataComex.

Regional comparison

Below we show a series of charts comparing the main indicators for the various regions.

Regional comparison

Last actualization: 27 October 2021 - 10:31