Navarre AC

In 2023, Navarre's economy performed slightly worse than on average in Spain: we expect regional GDP to grow by 2.2% (2.4% for Spain), due to weakening foreign demand, which has hampered industrial activity (the motor vehicle industry is a key sector in the region) and exports. 

Content available in
January 22nd, 2024
CF Navarra
672,000
inhabitants (2022)
€33,798
GDP per capita (2022)
1.7%
of Spanish GDP (2022)
1.6%
anticipated growth in GDP (2024)
Regional economic structure and position
  • Navarre has almost 672,000 inhabitants, 1.4% of the total population, making it the third least populated region in Spain.
  • The region's GDP stands at 22.595 billion euros, equivalent to 1.7% of Spanish GDP, so it is the region that makes the fourth smallest contribution to the national total.
  • At 33,798 euros, its GDP per capita is the third highest in the country and it is 20.0% higher than the national average (13.2% below the average in the euro area).
  • Navarre's productive sectors are mainly notable for the high relative importance of the manufacturing industry, which makes up 25.8% of its GDP, the highest percentage of all the regions (national average of 12.5%): the region, which contributes 3.5% of the country's manufacturing GVA, is home to leading companies in the motor vehicle, wind power and pharmaceutical industries. However, services make up a far smaller percentage than on average in terms of trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (24.5% vs. 28.4%), and especially industry-related services (20.3% vs. 28.5%).
  • Navarre is clearly export-oriented. Exports of goods, which account for 47.4% of regional GDP, the highest percentage among all regions (28.9% in Spain), totalled 10.701 billion euros in 2022, 2.7% of the national total: vehicle exports account for almost 38.0% of the total (9.0% of Spain as a whole), far ahead of industrial machinery (9.8%) and electrical appliances (9.2%).

Table of structural indicators

 

  

1992

2002

2012

 

2022

GDP per capita

euros

 

12,513

22,611

27,029

 

33,798

100 = Spain

 

127.8

125.0

122.6

 

120.0

Population

Thousands of inhabitants

 

525

568

639

 

672

Average annual growth over the decade (%)

 

0.2

0.8

1.2

 

0.5

% of total in Spain

 

1.3

1.4

1.4

 

1.4

% of population > 65 years old

 

15.9

17.9

18.3

 

20.5

Exports of goods as a proportion of GDP

%

 

34.8

41.9

 

47.4

 

 
Macroeconomic situation

In 2023, Navarre's economy performed slightly worse than on average in Spain: we expect regional GDP to grow by 2.2% (2.4% for Spain), due to weakening foreign demand, which has hampered industrial activity (the motor vehicle industry is a key sector in the region) and exports.

This year, our forecasts indicate that Navarre's GDP will grow by 1.6%, a slightly higher rate than the national average (1.4%), thanks to an improvement in the industrial sector, which started to become noticeable towards the end of 2023. Furthermore, the improvement in real household income and the expected acceleration in the disbursement of European funds will help the economy to gain momentum over the course of the year.

GDP

Last actualization: 19 January 2024 - 09:26

The performance of Navarre's labour market is somewhat more muted than on average in Spain, with a 1.9% year-on-year rise in the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security at the end of 2023 (+2.7% in Spain), so it is now 5.5% higher than it was in December 2019 (+7.4% in Spain); job creation in the administrative sectors, hotels and restaurants, as well as education has been outstanding over the last year. Moreover, the unemployment rate stood at 9.3% of the working population in Q3 2023 (national average of 11.8%), similar to the rate at the end of 2019.

According to the retail and consumer goods index (in volume), household spending in Navarre is performing worse than in Spain as a whole. After falling sharply in 2022, against the backdrop of a steep rise in shopping basket prices, last year's recovery was more subdued: according to the figures up to November, it rose by 4.9% year-on-year (+7.7% in Spain) and it is still lower than it was in 2019 (–5.6% vs. +3.0%).

Navarre's industry, which had performed extremely well in 2021-2022 - with cumulative growth of 14.0% (+9.6% in Spain), thanks to its strong competitiveness, especially in renewable energy materials - was notably weak in 2023: the region's industrial production fell by 3.3% year-on-year in January-October (–0.8% on average nationwide), hampered by the energy sectors and motor vehicle industry, 1.5% lower than it was in 2019, a similar difference to the country as a whole.

The weakness of Europe's main economies in 2023 had a negative impact on Navarre's exports, which fell by 3.8% year-on-year in January-October, whereas they stagnated in Spain: the decline in sales of motor vehicles and semi-finished goods (in particular paper, chemical products and metals) was partially offset by the strong performance of capital goods (engines and electrical appliances) and food (fruit and pulses). This means that Navarre is the only region in mainland Spain not to have returned to 2019 levels (0.3% vs. +31.2% in Spain).

Industrial production

Last actualization: 19 January 2024 - 09:39

Exports of goods

Last actualization: 19 January 2024 - 09:49

Table of indicators

 

 

2008-2013 average

2014-2019 average

2020

2021

2022

2023

Gap with 2019 (latest figure)

Latest figure

Activity and prices

Real GDP*
(% year-on-year change)

–1.5

2.7

–10.3

6.5

4.7

2.2

2.3

2023

–1.8

2.8

–11.2

6.4

5.8

2.4

2.4

Retail trade
(% cumulative annual change)

–3.8

1.3

–3.6

–1.9

–4.3

4.9

–1.2

November-23

–4.6

2.3

–5.6

2.6

–1.0

7.7

4.8

Industrial production index
(% cumulative annual change)

–5.7

3.1

–11.4

10.4

3.2

–3.3

–20.3

October-23

–5.3

1.8

–9.2

7.1

2.4

–0.8

–6.1

Service activity index
(% cumulative annual change)

–5.0

5.1

–10.2

14.1

20.8

1.8

23.0

October-23

–4.6

5.1

–15.6

15.8

19.9

3.0

17.3

Consumer price index
(% year-on-year change)

1.6

0.8

–0.6

3.4

8.8

3.1

16.0

November-23

1.7

0.7

–0.3

3.1

8.4

3.2

15.4

          

Labour market

Registered workers affiliated to Social Security
(% year-on-year change)

–2.7

2.9

–0.6

2.2

2.5

1.9

5.5

December-23

–3.1

3.2

–2.1

2.5

3.9

2.7

7.4

Registered workers affiliated to Social Security not affected by furlough
(ERTE in Spanish) (% year-on-year change)

–2.7

2.9

–6.0

6.4

4.7

2.5

6.6

December-23

–3.1

3.2

–9.2

7.3

7.3

3.2

8.4

Unemployment rate
(% working population)

12.8

11.8

10.1

10.6

9.6

9.3

Q3 2023

20.2

18.8

15.5

14.8

12.9

11.8

Unemployment rate for under 25s
(% working population < 25)

32.5

33.5

25.6

23.0

22.4

29.1

Q3 2023

42.5

42.5

38.3

44.7

23.9

27.8

          

Public sector

Public deficit
(% of GDP)

–3.1

–0.2

–0.9

1.3

1.3

0.5

Q3 2023

–2.7

–0.9

–0.2

0.0

–1.1

–0.1

Autonomous Communities public debt
(% of GDP)

10.8

19.2

19.1

15.2

13.9

13.1

Q3 2023

12.3

24.1

27.2

25.6

23.6

22.3

          

Real estate market

Housing prices
(% year-on-year change)

–9.7

2.2

1.7

2.8

7.3

7.6

20.8

Q3 2023

–8.1

5.3

2.1

3.7

7.4

4.5

19.1

Housing sales
(% cumulative annual change)

–9.6

5.4

–13.8

33.1

3.8

–3.1

30.8

October-23

–10.8

9.7

–16.9

34.8

14.8

–8.7

5.9

          

Foreign sector and tourism

Exports of goods
(% cumulative annual change)

3.1

4.6

–12.6

6.5

12.7

–3.8

–7.6

October-23

4.6

3.9

–9.4

20.1

22.9

0.0

20.0

Tourist overnight stays
(% cumulative annual change)

1.0

5.3

–52.5

71.1

24.6

8.3

–3.6

November-23

0.7

3.0

–69.2

78.3

73.3

7.1

4.4

Notes: *The 2023 GDP figure is an estimate made by CaixaBank Research.

Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), the Bank of Spain, the Ministry of Labour, Migration and Social Security (MITRAMISS), the Ministry of Finance and DataComex.

Regional comparison

Below we show a series of charts comparing the main indicators for the various regions.

Regional comparison

Last actualization: 28 February 2024 - 14:55