Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Yesterday's session showed sharp risk-off moves amid escalating Middle East tensions, with volatility picking up across assets. Brent rose to $77/barrel (briefly touching $80 during the day) and European natural gas climbed to EUR 44/MWh. Equities sold-off in Asia (-1%) and the euro area (-2%), while US markets showed relative resilience. The US dollar strengthened, gold advanced, and sovereign yields moved higher globally as investors moved into safe-have assets.
In the latest session, investor caution prevailed amid lingering concerns over the profitability of AI, a somewhat more hawkish tone from the Fed, and an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran.
Yesterday, markets traded cautiously amid the uncertainty over negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as lingering concerns around the AI profitability after Nvidia’s results failed to impress the investors. Equity markets moved lower, with losses led by the technology sector.
Risk sentiment recovered during yesterday’s session, as concerns over AI disruptions eased and global tech stocks advanced, with the Nasdaq gaining +1% in the session and global stocks recording gains overall. Against this backdrop, sovereign bond markets had a quiet session, with yields posting slight movements on both sides of the Atlantic.
During yesterday's session, investors continued to digest the implications of the US Supreme Court's ruling to strike down US emergency tariffs. While the global tariff stands at 10%, the Trump administration is reportedly working to increase it to 15%. Against this backdrop, government bond yields closed flat on both sides of the Atlantic, in a day of choppy trading.
Yesterday's session was dominated by heightened global uncertainty following the US Supreme Court's ruling on Friday, which struck down the emergency tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Investors adopted a risk-off stance ahead of a week with no major data releases. Market volatility picked up, reflecting elevated policy uncertainty.
The US Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s global tariffs, ruling that Trump had exceeded his legal authority. In response, he said he would invoke alternative legislation to levy tariffs and announced a blanket 15% tariff on imports from all other countries.
Caution prevailed in yesterday’s session amid the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Equity markets paused their recovery, while sovereign yield curves saw no material moves. The US dollar strengthened to a four‑month high against the euro.
Market sentiment turned positive following the release of robust data confirming the resilience of the US economy and continued inflation containment in the euro area. Equity markets posted broad-based gains, led by cyclical sectors.
Geopolitics were in investors’ focus yesterday, after Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran and the US had reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of a potential nuclear agreement. Commodity prices declined on the news, with Brent crude edging lower toward $67.5/barrel, European natural gas falling below €30/MWh, and gold also retreating.
Trading activity was subdued at the start of the week, with US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and mainland Chinese exchanges shut for the Lunar New Year holidays. With no major macroeconomic releases elsewhere, markets lacked clear catalysts, resulting in limited price action.
US inflation surprised slightly to the downside, with headline CPI easing to 2.4% yoy (vs. 2.5% expected), down from 2.7% in December. The softer reading boosted expectations of further Fed easing, with money markets now pricing a 50% probability of a third 25bp rate cut in 2026. US Treasury yields declined by around 5bp across the curve.