Financial Markets Daily Report22 July 2025
Investors traded with caution in the first session of the week. Looming trade negotiation deadlines and the EU's possible retaliatory measures triggered safe-haven flows and a rally in global bonds, with sharp declines in 10-year euro area sovereign yields and narrower peripheral spreads. Gold rose and the EUR strengthened towards $1.17.
In stock markets, U.S. equities climbed higher but lost steam by the end of the session, with traders eyeing a busy earnings week. European indices were mixed. In Japan, Tokyo's Stock Exchange was closed for Marine Day but the JPY strengthened as investors digested the outcome of Sunday's upper house election (which saw the governing coalition lose its control).
Market expectations for Fed and ECB interest rates were largely unchanged yesterday. Market-implied probabilities of a 25bp ECB cut were 2% for July, 48% for September and 99% for December. Investors saw a 3% probability of a Fed cut in July while raising the odds to 60% for September. Today the ECB will release its Q2 / Q3 2025 Bank Lending Survey.