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The ECB kept rates on hold at 2%, as expected, with Christine Lagarde noting that both rates and inflation remain in a “good place”. She also played down concerns around euro strength and risks linked to Chinese trade, signalling limited scope for policy easing below the 2% level.The BoE kept rates unchanged at 3.75%, albeit with a surprisingly dovish tone.

In the last session of the week, equity markets edged modestly higher, despite lingering doubts over the return on Big Tech investment in AI and questions around the robustness of corporate fundamentals, set against a backdrop of generally supportive macroeconomic data.

Yesterday session was risk-on, with global stocks advancing, led by Japan, where the Nikkei-225 registered gains of nearly 4% after the Liberal Democratic Party obtained the supermajority in the Lower House elections, allowing prime minister Sanae Takaichi to continue pursuing expansionary fiscal policies.

In yesterday's session, weaker-than-expected US retail sales in December combined with expected lower consumption due to harsh winter conditions, reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts during the year, with the first one occurring in June. Today key employment data will be released which should add further clarity on the interest-rate path.

Yesterday's data releases showed a stronger-than-expected labour market in the US, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130k in January and unemployment rate easing 0.1pp to 4.3%. The data reinforced market expectations that the Fed will deliver two rate cuts this year, likely starting in the summer, rather than signaling an earlier or more aggressive easing cycle.

Trading activity was subdued at the start of the week, with US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and mainland Chinese exchanges shut for the Lunar New Year holidays. With no major macroeconomic releases elsewhere, markets lacked clear catalysts, resulting in limited price action.

Geopolitics were in investors’ focus yesterday, after Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran and the US had reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of a potential nuclear agreement. Commodity prices declined on the news, with Brent crude edging lower toward $67.5/barrel, European natural gas falling below €30/MWh, and gold also retreating.

Market sentiment turned positive following the release of robust data confirming the resilience of the US economy and continued inflation containment in the euro area. Equity markets posted broad-based gains, led by cyclical sectors.

Caution prevailed in yesterday’s session amid the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Equity markets paused their recovery, while sovereign yield curves saw no material moves. The US dollar strengthened to a four‑month high against the euro.

The US Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s global tariffs, ruling that Trump had exceeded his legal authority. In response, he said he would invoke alternative legislation to levy tariffs and announced a blanket 15% tariff on imports from all other countries.

Yesterday's session was dominated by heightened global uncertainty following the US Supreme Court's ruling on Friday, which struck down the emergency tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Investors adopted a  risk-off stance ahead of a week with no major data releases. Market volatility picked up, reflecting elevated policy uncertainty.

During yesterday's session, investors continued to digest the implications of the US Supreme Court's ruling to strike down US emergency tariffs. While the global tariff stands at 10%, the Trump administration is reportedly working to increase it to 15%. Against this backdrop, government bond yields closed flat on both sides of the Atlantic, in a day of choppy trading.

Risk sentiment recovered during yesterday’s session, as concerns over AI disruptions eased and global tech stocks advanced, with the Nasdaq gaining +1% in the session and global stocks recording gains overall. Against this backdrop, sovereign bond markets had a quiet session, with yields posting slight movements on both sides of the Atlantic.

Yesterday, markets traded cautiously amid the uncertainty over negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as lingering concerns around the AI profitability after Nvidia’s results failed to impress the investors. Equity markets moved lower, with losses led by the technology sector.

In the latest session, investor caution prevailed amid lingering concerns over the profitability of AI, a somewhat more hawkish tone from the Fed, and an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran.

Yesterday's session showed sharp risk-off moves amid escalating Middle East tensions, with volatility picking up across assets. Brent rose to $77/barrel (briefly touching $80 during the day) and European natural gas climbed to EUR 44/MWh. Equities sold-off in Asia (-1%) and the euro area (-2%), while US markets showed relative resilience. The US dollar strengthened, gold advanced, and sovereign yields moved higher globally as investors moved into safe-have assets.

Elevated volatility persisted as the Middle East conflict intensified, heightening concerns over sustained disruptions to energy supplies. Brent crude advanced to USD 85/barrel and TTF natural gas rose above EUR 55/MWh (briefly nearing EUR 60 intra-session), up roughly 25% and 100%, respectively, since mid-February. Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off, with Asian and European markets underperforming US indices.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, although yesterday brought some relative calm after the sharp volatility seen earlier in the week. Brent crude traded in a $80–85/barrel range before settling near $81, after President Trump said the US would protect shipping routes in the region. European natural gas prices fell back below €50/MWh. Equity markets continued to slide in Asia but recovered in the US and Europe, while the dollar stabilized around 1.16 against the euro.

Heightened geopolitical tensions kept markets volatile as the Middle East conflict entered its sixth day. Energy prices moved higher, with Brent crude rising to $85/barrel and TTF gas to €50/MWh. Equities extended their sell-off in the US and the euro area after their short rebound on Wednesday, while the dollar strengthened, pushing EUR/USD toward 1.16.