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As expected, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged (depo at 2%) and reinforced its meeting-by-meeting data-dependent strategy.  Euro area sovereign yields edged higher, and equities had a mixed session across the region. On the macro front, euro area GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q3 (1.3% yoy), up from 0.1% qoq in Q2.

Markets had a mixed session. US stocks advanced ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, while most euro area indices retreated. US Treasury yields rose after the BLS announced it will not publish the October and November jobs data before the Fed's next meeting, leading markets to reduce expectations of a rate cut in December to 30%. Euro area sovereign yields were flat.

In yesterday's session, European government bond yields broadly fell after December inflation numbers for Germany and France came in lower than expected, lowering odds of future rate hikes from the ECB. Investors will be attentive to today's release of December CPI in the euro area, looking for more hints on the rate path in the short term.

Euro area sovereign bond yields continued to fall during yesterday's session, as earlier data releases that showed a lower-than-expected inflation in France and Germany were complemented with an inflation in the euro area in December of a 2% annual variation. Expectations of an ECB rate hike fell as well, as now the market does not price one until 2028.

European investors began the week with a risk-off tone, as US markets were closed for the Martin Luther King holiday. Sentiment deteriorated after Trump announced plans to impose new tariffs on European countries siding with Denmark in the Greenland dispute and the EU hinted at possible retaliation.

En este episodio de Economía Exprés, estrenamos 2026 con una mirada al mundo y a la productividad. Patricia Esteban conversa con Isabela Lara White sobre el estado de la economía internacional tras un 2025 convulso, pero sorprendentemente resiliente. ¿Cómo se han comportado los mercados financieros? ¿Cómo han resistido las grandes economías, España incluida, a los embates de la geopolítica, los aranceles y la incertidumbre global? Después, junto a Javier García Arenas, nos adentramos en el dossier especial de CaixaBank Research sobre productividad: ¿Por qué es importante? ¿Qué factores explican que unas regiones europeas crezcan más que otras? ¿Y qué puede hacer España (y sus comunidades autónomas) para mejorar su posición en el ranking de productividad? No te pierdas la nueva temporada del programa.

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Yesterday's session showed sharp risk-off moves amid escalating Middle East tensions, with volatility picking up across assets. Brent rose to $77/barrel (briefly touching $80 during the day) and European natural gas climbed to EUR 44/MWh. Equities sold-off in Asia (-1%) and the euro area (-2%), while US markets showed relative resilience. The US dollar strengthened, gold advanced, and sovereign yields moved higher globally as investors moved into safe-have assets.

Yesterday’s session reflected a risk-on tone in European and Asian markets, as investors reacted to late Monday remarks from President Trump suggesting that the Middle East conflict could end soon. Asian equities rebounded sharply, with Japan’s Nikkei-225 rising around 3%, and the Spanish IBEX-35 outperforming European peers.