Markets on both sides of the Atlantic saw mixed results yesterday. In the eurozone, where all eyes are on tomorrow’s ECB meeting, sovereign bond yields fell while peripheral spreads remained flat after the ZEW survey showed German business sentiment at its lowest in four months in July and despite the Q2 BLS showing an increase in credit demand.
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Another session of mixed results across markets on Wednesday. Sovereign bond yields remained rather flat amid low trading volumes on both sides of the Atlantic. In the eurozone, all eyes were set on today’s ECB meeting, where the bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. In the US, Fed officials said they are “closer” to cutting interest rates.
A mixed session in financial markets on Thursday as the ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected. Lagarde said that eurozone growth was likely to have slowed in Q2 and expected wage growth to moderate in the coming quarters, but insisted that the September move remained "wide open".
Lower-than-expected PMIs for July in the euro area (services 51.9 vs. 52.9 expected, and manufacturing 45.6 vs. 46.1 expected) sent the region's sovereign bond yields higher. Equities were mixed, ending mostly lower, while the PSI20 advanced and the Ibex-35 ended flat, boosted by the energy and utilities sectors.
Investors ended the week with renewed risk appetite as inflation data released during the day was broadly in line with expectations. In the US, the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month on month in June, as expected, bolstering hopes of a Fed rate cut in September. In the eurozone, 1 and 3 year inflation expectations remained at 2.8% and 2.3% respectively.
Investors started the week in a cautious mood awaiting several key events: from Central bank meetings across many developed economies, to a raft of important economic data and companies' earnings. In the data front, today Q2 GDP figures will be released for the eurorozone aggregate and its main economies, as well as some inflation data for July.
Sentiment was mixed in yesterday's session amid a raft of economic data. In the euro area, slightly higher than expected Q2 GDP (0.6% yoy vs. 0.5% expected), with France (1.1% yoy vs. 0.7% expected) and Spain (2.9% yoy vs. 2.5% expected) leading the surprises, supported equity markets. Sovereign bond yields edged lower ahead of today's inflation data.
Investors ended August digesting inflation data which confirmed prices are moving in the right direction for the ECB and the Fed to cut interest rates in their September meetings. Specifically, euro are inflation cooled to 2.2% y/y last month, and the US PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) for July was unchanged at 2.5% y/y.
Lacking any major macro data to trade on and with US markets closed for the Labor Day holiday, investors kicked off the week with a quiet session on Monday. The final reading of the August manufacturing PMI for the euro area came in without any major revisions at 45.8, confirming the sector's weakness.
Another mixed session for financial markets as investors tried to figure out future rate moves from the main central banks. In the eurozone, the ECB delivered yesterday a 25 bp cut to its depo rate, bringing it to 3.5%. Regarding the October meeting, Lagarde just noted that it will take place too soon to provide the ECB with new data to assess price dynamics.
The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 50 bp sent global stocks soaring during yesterday's session. Equities climed more than 2% in the euro area, and in the US, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, as stocks priced in the soft-landing scenario.
Financial markets had a mixed start to the week as investors tried to reconcile seemingly contradictory signals. In the eurozone, government bond yields fell after September's PMI showed a weak manufacturing sector weighing heavily on the core economies. A sharp, unexpected deterioration in the French services PMI also pushed up the country's spread.
Investors’ risk appetite soured yesterday. Sovereign bond yields rose across the board on both sides of the Atlantic. In the Eurozone, peripheral spreads widened a tad as French finance minister acknowledged the country's budget deficit could come in above 6% this year, leaving the 10-year French reference on par with the Spanish counterpart.
Thursday's markets saw a mixed session across asset classes and geographies. In the Eurozone, peripheral spreads fell for all countries except France as the poor fiscal outlook continued to weigh on the country's sovereign debt.
Financial markets struggled to find a clear direction amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices had a volatile session, with the Brent reference touching $76/barrel in intraday trading, to close at around $74/barrel. Equity markets closed with slight losses in the euro area and flat in the US, while the volatility index remained elevated.
Financial markets started the week with subdued trading, as debt and money markets in the US were closed for a Federal holiday. Eurozone sovereign bond yields were fairly flat, with peripheral spreads narrowing slightly, as investors continued to focus on Thursday's ECB meeting, for which they expect a 25bp interest rate cut.
Revised inflation figures for Spain and France reaffirmed market expectations of a 25bp interest rate cut at this week's ECB meeting. And, while industrial production for the euro block rose in August and sentiment indicators improved in Germany, the data are unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering a cut.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of the ECB's Governing Council meeting today, for which markets are expecting a 25 bp interest rate cut. Euro area sovereign bond yields fell for a second straight session and the main equity indices in the region were mixed.
The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp for the third time since June, and as expected by financial markets, lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%. The decision was based on increased confidence that inflation is close to target and a shift to a more negative short-term outlook for the euro area economy.
Investors started the week in a risk-off mood, albeit with no clear trigger or catalyst, suggesting that it was mostly about locking in profits. Sovereign bond yields rose across the board on both sides of the Atlantic, with steepening curves. In the eurozone, peripheral spreads widened despite Fitch's confirmation of Italy's rating and improved outlook late on Friday.