Investors traded in a mixed mood as the U.S. earnings season kicked off. Global stocks were mixed, the USD weakened moderately and sovereign yields nudged up across the U.S. and Europe.
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Investors traded in a more cautious way in yesterday's session. U.S. and euro area sovereign yields nudged up on the back of a surge in U.S. consumer confidence (the Conference Board's index rose to 121.7 points in April, its highest level since February 2020), while global stock markets were mixed.
Volatility edged up amid a bunch of economic releases on Friday. In the euro area, GDP contracted moderately in Q1 (-0.6% qoq) while inflation rose to 1.6% in April (+0.3pp) due to base effects in energy prices. U.S. consumer spending rose +4.2% mom in March as consumers received stimulus checks, and PCE core inflation advanced to 1.8% yoy.
Global stocks tumbled on Tuesday, with the tech sector in Europe suffering its biggest drop since October, mirroring a selloff on the Nasdaq (-1.9%, sharpest fall since March). The decline was driven by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning that interest rates may need to rise to prevent the economy from overheating.
Investor sentiment steadied in yesterday's session and markets halted a string of volatile sessions this week. U.S. stocks rebounded and European equities continued to advance. Earlier, Asian stocks had closed lower, dragged by the previous days' jump in volatility.
In yesterday's session, investors weighed the reopening of economies against inflationary pressures concerns. On the latter, nevertheless, ECB's Villeroy de Galhau said that the inflation spike in the euro area is likely to be temporary and that the monetary policy stance will remain very accommodative for a long time.
Yesterday, investors traded in a risk-off session in which stock indices declined across the board, core euro area sovereign yields ticked down and the US dollar strengthened against most currencies.
European equities dropped as investors looked for the next catalysts to give the market direction. In Spain, shares of utility companies dropped over a draft bill the government is preparing that could drive down electricity prices.
Wall Street's main indexes closed little changed as investors weighed inflation concerns and a fresh surge in so-called "meme stocks" : AMC jumped 97.44%. European equities closed at another record high amid hopes of a strong economic rebound that boosted cyclical stocks.
In the first session of the week, investors extended the positive tone seen during last Friday. In the euro area, economic data releases came in better than expected (EZ Sentix Investor Confidence rose in June to 28.0 from 21.0 and Spain's industrial production rose by 1.2% mom in April).
In yesterday's session investors traded cautiously following the release of better-than-expected Q1 GDP growth data for the euro area (revised up by 0.3 p.p. to -0,3%) and record high job opening figures for the U.S. (up by almost 1 million to 9.3 million in April).
Yesterday, investors traded with caution and did not get agitated with the news coming from the US inflation report and the ECB monetary policy meeting. The VIX index declined and shares fell modestly in the euro area and increased in the US (the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high). Sovereign yields edged down in both regions.
Investors ended the day with positive results, after strong sentiment data in Europe (Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to the highest level in two years) and labour statistics in the US (new jobless claims fell to 411,000 weekly). In addition, President Biden announced a deal in the Senate on an infrastructure package worth USD 1.2 trillion.
Spain's manufacturing industry suffered a severe setback in 2020 but the data show a rapid recovery, pending the impact of the European NGEU funds and with the automotive industry as a benchmark and driver of technological transformation.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment worsened as COVID-19 infections increased in some parts of Asia and Europe, despite the vaccination campaign, and some countries imposed new limits to travel, especially from the UK.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with an optimistic mood following positive economic sentiment data releases for June in the euro area (EC Economic confidence rose from 114.5 to 117.9) and in the US (Conference Board consumer confidence at 127.3 from 120.0).
Investors’ morale improved again on the back of solid economic data reports. June PMI and ISM data in the euro area and in the US reflected that economic growth is gaining momentum and most manufacturing indices remained above the 60 points (EZ at 63.4, US ISM at 60.6, Spain’s at 60.4, +1 pp from the previous month).
During a session with low trading volumes (markets were closed in the US), investors recorded modest gains, fuelled by positive sentiment data across Europe (the service PMI was revised up by 0.3 points to 58.3 in June, the highest level since July 2007).
In a volatile session, investors’ sentiment was clouded by disappointing labour data in the US (new jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 373k during the first week of July) and uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic. In Europe, the ECB confirmed a decision to modify its inflation target to a symmetric 2%.
The S&P 500 Index closed at another record high as investors looked to a highly anticipated second-quarter earnings season, which will start today with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and PepsiCo Inc. European equities hit a record high with investors rotating out of cyclical sectors and into more defensive.