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Estamos asistiendo a un progresivo movimiento de muchas economías hacia zonas del ciclo económico paulatinamente menos afectadas por la COVID-19. "Menos afectadas" no significa en absoluto que no haya impacto (los coletazos de la variante delta todavía están entre nosotros). Tampoco implica que la posición hacia la ansiada normalización sea la misma para todos los países. Así nos lo cuenta Clàudia Canals en el podcast de septiembre.
Dossier
NGEU European Funds: the spring board for the digital leap
Nuestro Economista jefe comparte las perspectivas de la economía española para el año 2021, en este vídeo para los Accionistas de CaixaBank.
El 9 de febrer tres dels nostres economistes van compartir amb #AmicsdelPaís les “Perspectives econòmiques per al 2021, un any de canvi” de CaixaBank Research en un seminari online que reproduïm en aquest vídeo.
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of the agrifood sector as a mainstay of the Spanish economy. During the months of lockdown, the entire food chain (which includes farmers, breeders, fishermen, cooperatives and the food industry, wholesalers, retailers, distributors and logistics operators) had to adapt quickly to secure the population's food supply. In retrospect, it is only fair to acknowledge the excellent response by the whole sector in tackling this challenge.
Markets started the week showing greater risk appetite as the World Health Organization listed AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use. Stocks rose across advanced and emerging economies, the USD weakened moderately and commodity prices edged up. U.S. markets were closed for the Presidents day holiday.
Financial markets started the week with mixed results. Investors balanced out the risk from the COVID outbreak in Europe with the re-appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Fed president and the nomination of Lael Brainard as the next VP, signaling policy continuity at the helm of the central bank.
The outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020 has had unprecedented repercussions in many areas of the economy. One of these has been household consumption, the main component of GDP and traditionally considered an indicator of the health of the economy and the well-being of society. Because of the restrictions on business and travel during the health crisis caused by COVID-19, the drop in consumption was much greater than during previous crises. The positive side is that once restrictions were lifted, Spain’s consumption has rebounded more sharply in 2021 than in the past.
In yesterday's session investors continued to trade with a risk-on mood but with more caution amid rising Covid-19 cases across advanced economies. In addition, some ECB members offered comments with a hawkish tone, opening the door even to a rate hike in 2022 if inflation were to increase further.
Investors traded with a risk-on mode during the first session of the year, extending recent gains while shrugging off a further deterioration in the number of COVID daily infections across the world.
Financial markets extended gains on Tuesday as investors continued to bet that the ongoing economic recovery could sustain the spike in COVID infections across the world.
Over the past few years, Spain's manufacturing industry has managed to avoid the worst scenarios of a slump in activity (COVID, bottlenecks, energy crisis). However, in 2023 it faces new challenges: the impact of higher interest rates, the effects of supply problems with certain inputs and rising production costs.
After the sharp downturn in the sector caused by the pandemic, the recovery of international tourism in Spain can now be considered almost complete. Among the world’s top 10 tourism destinations, Spain was the second to exceed its number of pre-COVID international tourists, behind only Türkiye.
Investor sentiment ended the week on the up amid positive reports over a potential antiviral drug to treat COVID-19. As risk appetite rose, stocks increased across Europe and the U.S., the USD weakened and commodity prices advanced (in oil markets, the barrel of Brent closed moderately above $43).
Markets continued to exhibit a mixed performance as investors weighed data releases and increasing COVID-19 infections. European stocks and sovereign yields declined after euro area industrial production had posted a lower-than-expected rebound in May (+12.4% mom and -20.9% yoy). Yet, in FX markets the euro rose towards $1.14.
Positive developments around a potential COVID-19 vaccine fueled a risk-on mood in yesterday's session. Stocks rose across advanced and emerging economies and, in the U.S., shares of Moderna - a company working on a vaccine - surged close to 7% after a small-scale study showed its experimental vaccine produced high levels of antibodies.
In the first session of the week, investor sentiment improved as promising trial results from a potential COVID-19 vaccine renewed investor's hopes.
Financial markets started the week with a mixed session. In Europe, investors traded with a risk-off mood while in the US riskier assets benefited from progress in the negotiations for a new fiscal stimulus package and hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine.
COVID-19 is having a huge impact on economic activity in Spain and, in particular, on the tourism industry. At CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020, not returning to its pre-crisis levels until 2023. The outlook in 2020 is even grimmer for Spain's tourism industry as it is one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic.