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House prices have risen sharply since the middle of last year but the trend is very uneven across different municipalities and regions. One factor contributing to this geographical heterogeneity is the recovery in foreign demand: house prices in the most tourist-oriented municipalities are growing more vigorously than in non-tourist areas. CaixaBank Research’s house price forecast models, based on big data and machine learning techniques, point to a moderate slowdown in house prices over the coming quarters.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/where-are-house-prices-growing-most-spain

The pandemic has inevitably brought about major changes in our consumption habits. Faced with the impossibility of going to a store in person, online shopping channels have gained a lot of share in 2020. According to an analysis of CaixaBank’s internal data, this growth has not only been significant but also widespread among companies of different sizes and sectors, and has encouraged many of them to use e-commerce as a sales channel for the very first time.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/retail/e-commerce-several-years-progress-made-just-few-months

COVID-19 is having a huge impact on economic activity in Spain and, in particular, on the tourism industry. At CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020, not returning to its pre-crisis levels until 2023. The outlook in 2020 is even grimmer for Spain's tourism industry as it is one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sector-analysis/tourism/tourism-industry-face-covid-19-unprecedented-impact

During the months of lockdown there was a radical change in food consumption patterns in Spain. Using internal data on spending with Spanish and foreign cards via CaixaBank POS terminals, we can see that expenditure in supermarkets and large food stores picked up noticeably during the state of emergency. Online shopping also increased, partly to minimise travel and contact between people, whereas consumption in restaurants plummeted. Despite the fact that, during the summer, household expenditure on restaurants picked up strongly, the slump in foreign tourism continues to be particularly detrimental to establishments geared towards international clients.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/agrifood/changing-consumption-patterns-during-lockdown-restaurant-home

The recent boom in Spain’s international tourism is having a very positive impact on the growth of the economy and of employment. However, it also has repercussions for the resident population that are not always positive, such as greater congestion due to the larger influx of tourists in certain parts of Spain. This has rekindled the debate on the need to move towards higher quality tourism.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/international-tourism-spain-quantity-quality

Activity in the real estate market is recovering from the extraordinary slump experienced during the strictest months of lockdown. House sales picked up notably in the first few months of 2021 while new building permits continue to recover gradually. On the other hand, house prices have accentuated their downward trend observed since mid-2018. Nevertheless, their performance was surprisingly resilient during the pandemic, particularly the prices for new builds, and we expect house prices to continue posting moderate but steady gains in the coming quarters.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/crisis-tiptoes-through-real-estate-sector

The full recovery of international tourism spending in Spain hides major changes in the structure of demand by region of origin. Using data on payments made with foreign cards on CaixaBank POS terminals, duly aggregated and anonymised, we see that Western Europe remains the main issuer of tourists, and that North America and Latin America significantly increased their share of foreign spending. In contrast, the recovery of tourism from the Middle East and Asia and Oceania has been more disparate, affected by geopolitical and economic factors. Overall, a stable but robust growth outlook for 2024-2025 indicates that international tourism in Spain will remain in good shape.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/how-has-international-tourism-demand-changed-pandemic

The global economy continues to grow at different speeds in Q2. In the US, the labour market is beginning to show signs of moderation while inflation continues its slow downward trickle; Germany’s weakness conditions the euro area as a whole, and China’s economy faces a modest outlook for Q3.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/inflation-relatively-under-control-international-stage-focus

In this Focus we present the main conclusions of the Sectoral Observatory, a new publication by CaixaBank Research in which we offer a clear and detailed analysis of the evolution of the Spanish economy from the point of view of its sectors.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/caixabank-sectoral-observatory-look-evolution-spanish-economy

We have developed a real-time indicator based on payrolls deposited into CaixaBank accounts in order to analyse wage trends in Spain. The indicator provides very up-to-date information on wage dynamics, with a high degree of detail at the geographic and sectoral level.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/inflation/wage-dynamics-spain-what-does-caixabank-research-wage-growth-tracker

Using anonymised and aggregated data from card payments made via CaixaBank point of sale terminals, we analysed whether there were any changes in tourist spending and found that the hottest areas of the country experienced slower growth in tourist expenditure between the high seasons of 2019 and 2023. We also found changes as well as changes in the pattern of expenditure during heat waves. 

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/impact-climate-change-tourism-spain-analysis-and-outlook

The strong growth of the tourism sector in recent years, together with new consumer habits following the pandemic, has led to an extraordinary recovery of the Spanish restaurant sector, both in terms of job creation and turnover. It has also gained considerable international recognition and prestige, while at the same time playing a fundamental role in our country as a promoter of social and territorial cohesion.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/snapshot-catering-sector-spain-bars-michelin-stars

Europe is the world's main source of tourists and the Mediterranean basin its main destination. This is doubly beneficial for Spain, whose tourism sector is one of the most firmly established in the region. However, other countries' tourism industries are developing strongly and the re-emergence of Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey has altered the playing field.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sector-analysis/tourism/lucha-turismo-internacional-mediterraneo

Analyzing of consumption growth since May 2021, when the last state of emergency ended, we can see that the recovery in spending on transport, and especially on leisure, hospitality and tourism, was particularly strong. The sectors hardest hit by the restrictions (most of them still in force in Q1 2021) are therefore the ones that are recovering the most. On the other hand, consumer durables (furniture, textiles, etc.) have benefitted much more modestly from the pick-up in consumption, as will be seen below, while spending on basic necessities has fallen (except among low-income households), partly because these goods can be replaced by the services offered by the hospitality industry.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/consumption/which-sectors-have-benefitted-most-pent-demand