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After an exceptional 2023 for tourism in Spain, with record levels of international arrivals, spending, overnight stays and domestic tourism, the figures for 2024 are exceeding expectations and marking the best start to the year in the sector’s history. CaixaBank Research forecasts that tourism GDP will grow by 5% in 2024 (more than double the rate expected for the economy as a whole), with over 90 million visits by international tourists.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/spains-tourism-sector-will-continue-grow-rapidly-2024-2025

Consumption in Spain is recovering faster than in previous crises. This is highlighted in the consumption tracker produced by CaixaBank Research based on internal data (available in Spanish: Monitor de Consumo). In the month of October, our consumption indicator was already 13% higher than in the same month in 2019. 

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/consumption-spain-overcoming-worst-pandemic

The health crisis caused by COVID-19 has represented an unprecedented shock for Spain's tourism sector. Demand indicators confirm that the stoppage during the months of lockdown was total, both for international and domestic tourism. The end of the state of emergency and the recovery in international mobility within the EU have helped to revive flows of tourists to Spain. The outlook for the coming months points to a relatively rapid upturn in domestic tourism with a more gradual recovery for international tourist flows, although the delicate situation of the pandemic will still be a major source of uncertainty.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/toughest-year-tourism-industry

Repeating tourists are one of the keys to the success of Spain’s tourism sector, but climate change puts their loyalty at risk. In this article we present a highly innovative analysis using data on payments made with foreign cards on CaixaBank POS terminals, which allows us to identify the international tourists who visited Spain in the high season, both in 2022 and in 2023.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/tourist-loyalty-and-climate-change

The CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator is a synthetic indicator that encompasses information from 17 variables into a single indicator. It is a monthly indicator and it compiles data dating back to January 2011. It is calculated for 24 economic sectors, including the four major ones: agriculture, forestry and fishing, manufacturing, construction and services.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/sectoral-observatory/methodology-note-caixabank-research-sectoral-indicator

The Spanish residential market has suffered from a slump in foreign demand during the pandemic. Restrictions on international travel have hit the most tourist-oriented areas of the Mediterranean coast and islands particularly hard, which have seen a sharp fall in purchases by foreigners. Nevertheless, although house prices in these tourist-oriented municipalities have seen a marked slowdown, the adjustment was very moderate until Q1 2021 and the outlook for the coming quarters is good, thanks to the revival of international tourism, especially in the coming year.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/how-has-slump-foreign-tourism-affected-residential-property-market

Spain’s agrifood sector is typically focused on exports: The range of agrifood products exported by Spain is getting wider and covering more destinations. However, another dimension should also be taken into account: export complexity, a concept that measures the knowledge intensity required to produce exported goods. Because not only the volume of exports is important but also what is exported.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/agrifood/complexity-spanish-agrifood-exports

In 2024, tourism GDP experienced another year of significant growth, with an estimated increase of 6% in real terms, roughly doubling that of the economy as a whole. This performance was driven by a sharp rise in the number of foreign tourists and their average spending, thanks to a recovery of British and long-haul tourism. On the other hand, Spanish tourists are now travelling abroad again, resuming pre-pandemic levels. In this favourable context, the hotel sector continues to enjoy very strong demand, which has allowed it to continue to raise its occupancy levels and its profitability to new highs. Looking ahead in 2025, Spain’s tourism sector will grow at a slightly more moderate rate, although it still has significant support factors to continue expanding and we expect it to remain one of the main growth drivers of the economy as a whole.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/tourism-sector-once-again-breaks-records-and-consolidates-its-role-driver

Financial inclusion guarantees people access to an appropriate level of financial services. The considerable decline in the number of bank branches in Spain in recent years has increased the risk of financial exclusion for some customers in rural areas. These customers tend to prefer a physical bank branch and specialised offers, especially in the business segment. Within this context, the role played by rural bank branches is twofold: they allow the banking sector to specialised offers in economic sectors critical to large parts of the region, such as agriculture, whilst also maintaining a commitment to financial inclusion.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/agrifood/role-played-rural-branches-financial-inclusion

Oriol is Head of Spanish Economics at CaixaBank Research. With an Executive Development Programme from IESE Business School to his name, he also holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master’s degree in Economics and Finance from the Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI). He has published articles in internationally renowned academic journals, as well as papers on topics such as economic inequality, monetary policy, the real estate sector and financial stability, among others. He is Technical Secretary of the board of directors of the Cercle d’Economia.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/oriol-aspachs

Enric is Head of Strategic Planning and Research and Chief Economist at CaixaBank. First degree from Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Master and Doctorate in Economics from the University of Chicago and a graduate of the Program for Management Development at IESE Business School. After earning his Doctorate, he worked for six years at the International Monetary Fund, monitoring various emerging economies and designing and negotiating a range of financial assistance programmes. He joined CaixaBank in 2006 and, since 2016, has led the Strategic Planning and Research team. He sits on the Executive Committee of the boards of FEDEA (Foundation for Applied Economic Studies), the Real Instituto Elcano, the Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB) and the Institute of Political Economy and Governance (IPEG), as well as being a member of the Editorial Board of the Revista Econòmica de Catalunya, published by the College of Economists of Catalonia, and of the Expert Group for PwC's Consenso Económico.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/enric-fernandez

José Ramon is Head of International Economics & Markets at CaixaBank Research. He has a Master's degree in Financial Markets from ICADE, a Bachelor's degree in Economic Sciences specialising in Economic Analysis and Quantitative Economics from the Complutense University (Madrid), and a Senior Management Programme from IE Business School to his name. Prior to joining CaixaBank, he worked as chief economist at Bankia and Caja Madrid. He has more than 30 years of experience in various fields related to macroeconomic analysis: monetary policy, country risk, the financial system, etc. During that time, he has combined his work as an economic and financial analyst with teaching positions at various institutions: CEU, ICADE, the Business Institute (Instituto de Empresa), etc. He is currently also a professor of Economic Structure at CUNEF.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/jose-ramon-diez

Mireia is an analyst in the Strategic Planning and Research Department at CaixaBank. She holds a degree in Business Administration and Management and a Master's degree in Business Administration from ESADE. Before joining CaixaBank, she worked as a project manager in the Corporate Development and M&A Department at Naturgy, in PwC Corporate Finance and for DC Advisory Partners. Her areas of research and specialisation primarily include the analysis of the profitability and competitive environment of the Spanish and Portuguese banking system.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/mireia-crusells

Jesús is Manager of Organisation and Publications at the Strategic Planning and Research Division. He has a PhD in Business Management and Administration from Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), an Industrial Engineering degree with a major in organisation from the Escola Tècnica Superior d'Enginyeria Industrial de Barcelona (ETSEIB), part of the same university, and an MBA from IESE Business School, Universidad de Navarra. Before joining CaixaBank Research he worked as Telemarketing Sales Campaign Manager at CaixaBank.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/jesus-viscarri

Investment in the commercial real estate market fell sharply in 2023 as a result of the rise in interest rates. However, as 2024 progresses we can expect to see a revival in transactions, thanks to the anticipated fall in interest rates and an improvement in the fundamentals that determine the behaviour of the different segments. On the one hand, greater buoyancy in consumption will support the retail segment and the continued penetration of e-commerce will continue to require investments in the logistics segment. On the other hand, housing will consolidate its position as the segment attracting the most investment, and the hotel sector will continue to improve thanks to the strength of tourism in Spain. Finally, offices will continue to adapt to the new demands in terms of sustainability and the new forms of work that emerged after the pandemic.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/will-we-see-revival-spains-commercial-real-estate-sector-2024