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The situation of the tourism sector improved considerably during the summer months, outperforming the projections of many of the companies in the industry.

The Spanish economy grew by 5.0% in 2021, a large figure by historical standards but slightly below expectations, considering that GDP growth rates closer to 6.0% had been forecast at the beginning of the year. Several factors, both internal and external, have moderated the strength of this economic recovery. Among the internal factors is the somewhat slower than expected implementation of the NGEU programme, leading to a modest recovery in investment. External factors include higher energy costs and problems in global supply chains, both of which have been considerably aggravated by the war in Ukraine.

At this point in the pandemic, no-one is in any doubt that the economic scenario largely depends on how the health situation will develop. After a period of relative normality during the summer, a large number of European countries have had to step up restrictions on people’s movements and business activity. The economic impact of this second wave is considerable, although clearly less than the effect of the strict lockdowns imposed in Q2. This situation has worsened the economic outlook for the beginning of 2021, although the outlook for the spring is more promising with hopes being placed on the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine and other measures to help strengthen the health strategy (such as the low-cost, rapid testing of large numbers of the population).

Activity in Spain’s real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump during the first lockdown. In Q3 2020, house sales and new building permits recovered much of the ground lost, a positive trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. Moreover, the impact of the crisis on house prices has been relatively moderate so far, although we expect these will continue to adjust in the latter part of 2020 and the first half of 2021. In particular, CaixaBank Research’s new house price forecasting models at the level of province, based on large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques, predict that house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow very moderately in the rest.

However, it is important to remember that the economic impact of COVID-19 is huge and the effects of the pandemic on the sector will take time to disappear completely. The Recovery Plan for Europe, or Next Generation EU (NGEU), allocated a substantial sum of 750 billion euros, will be decisive in helping to boost the recovery. One of the EU’s main targets, which this recovery plan aims to support significantly, is the ecological transition to become climate-neutral by 2050. In the EU, buildings are responsible for emitting about 40% of the gases that cause global warming. The involvement and commitment of the construction industry is therefore essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the agreed targets, while more energy-efficient «smart» buildings also support another of the Commission’s key targets: digital transition.

These European funds represent a unique opportunity to modernise Spain’s economy, which will receive around 72 billion euros in non-refundable transfers between 2021 and 2026, equivalent to 5.8% of its GDP in 2019. About 6% of the European NGEU funds will be aimed at renovating housing, tripling public investment in this area. In particular, the government plans to recondition 500,000 homes between 2021 and 2023. This target, if achieved, would be very positive for the sector but it is highly ambitious since it requires multiplying the current reconditioning rate by six in just three years.

In addition to renovations, another priority for housing policy over the coming years is the improvement of social housing. The severe economic and social impact of the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the need to provide a large number of rented social housing to resolve the current shortage and be able to ensure the most vulnerable sections of the population have somewhere to live. Policies that should drive a green, social and digital recovery.

Climate change and the struggle to prevent it pose enormous challenges for agrifood production in Spain. In turn, improving the sustainability and resilience of the sector will be key to achieving the environmental targets set out in the European Green Deal. Agri-environmental indicators show that, despite some progress in recent years, the sector needs to tackle significant aspects, such as reducing the use of chemical pesticides, fertilisers and antimicrobials in agriculture, as well as improving animal health and welfare, increasing efficiency in the use of energy and water resources, promoting food consumption that is more sustainable and healthier and reducing food loss and waste, fostering a circular economy. The new CAP, with eco-schemes as its key measure, and the Next Generation EU funds will support the sector’s green and digital transition.

Historically, and in general terms, increases (or decreases) in consumption go hand in hand with larger increases (or decreases) in consumer credit. This relationship is particularly close in the case of durable goods, which are the most frequently financed given that they tend to be larger expenses.

The demand for housing among non-resident foreign buyers has grown sharply in recent years, especially after the pandemic, consolidating itself as one of the main drivers of Spain's real estate market. This boom is a response to several attractions which Spain has to offer, such as economic stability, the perception of security, good connectivity and a real estate offer that remains competitive. The profile of these buyers and the areas of interest have diversified, with an increase in the variety of nationalities and chosen locations: the influence of the United Kingdom has reduced, Poland is in the top 5 buyer nationalities, interest from the US and Latin America is on the rise, and new centres of interest are emerging in less traditional areas, such as Castellón, Asturias, Huelva and Córdoba.

Despite COVID-19, house prices in most advanced economies rebounded in 2020, largely thanks to the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies introduced to revive economic activity.

Activity in Spain’s agrifood sector is increasing at a faster rate than across the economy as a whole and the outlook for the 2024-2025 campaign is encouraging. Exports are holding up well in the adverse environment of recent years and the food price rally has begun to slow, although the cumulative increase since 2019 remains significant.

The wine sector plays a fundamental role in Spain, not only in economic terms due to its contribution to activity, employment and exports but also because of how extensively vines are grown and its regional importance, making it a driving force for environmental conservation and rural development. Spain is the world’s second largest exporter of wine in volume and third in value, although in recent years we have seen greater penetration in North America and Asia, markets that tend to buy wine of higher value. After the COVID-19 crisis, wineries and cooperatives must tackle important medium-term challenges and adapt to the new consumption habits of a younger, more digital and environmentally aware public. This strategy includes a commitment to organic farming, online sales and wine tourism.

The Spanish tourism sector faces 2026 from a position of strength, with a positive outlook prospects after stabilisation of post-pandemic growth. In 2025, Spain reaffirmed its global leadership with 97 million international arrivals and record spending of €135 billion, ranking second worldwide. Tourism GDP grew by 2.7% and is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 2.5%-2.7% in the coming years. This scenario reflects a more balanced sector, with clear signs of regional diversification and deseasonalisation, and with emerging segments that boost its added value.

Since Spain’s tourism sector returned in 2023 to the peak levels of 2019, the sector has been showing no signs of cyclical exhaustion and it recorded strong growth in 2024.

The problem of housing affordability, both rental and ownership, has worsened in recent years and is particularly affecting certain groups such as young people. Solving this issue is no easy task and requires action to be taken on multiple fronts and over an extended time horizon. Public-private collaboration is essential for boosting the supply of affordable housing, and industrialised construction shows promise as a new way to help overcome the major challenges that the sector is facing, such as attracting skilled and female labour, while promoting more digital and sustainable construction methods.

The outbreak of war in Ukraine has overshadowed the positive outlook we were forecasting for the Spanish economy in 2022. While, at the end of last year, some factors had already appeared on the scene that hindered the economic recovery, the armed conflict in Ukraine has become the main focus of attention and the major conditioning factor for short-term economic developments.

The outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors is positive. We expect to see a higher growth rate in sectors linked to the digital transition, such as ICT and professional services, as well as in sectors where the Spanish economy is highly competitive, such as the pharmaceutical and tourism sectors.