The demand for housing among non-resident foreign buyers has grown sharply in recent years, especially after the pandemic, consolidating itself as one of the main drivers of Spain's real estate market. This boom is a response to several attractions which Spain has to offer, such as economic stability, the perception of security, good connectivity and a real estate offer that remains competitive. The profile of these buyers and the areas of interest have diversified, with an increase in the variety of nationalities and chosen locations: the influence of the United Kingdom has reduced, Poland is in the top 5 buyer nationalities, interest from the US and Latin America is on the rise, and new centres of interest are emerging in less traditional areas, such as Castellón, Asturias, Huelva and Córdoba.
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El endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras, la intensificación de la crisis energética y las primeras señales de enfriamiento de los indicadores de consumo son las principales causas de esta nueva revisión del escenario. Nos lo explica en detalle Clàudia Canals, quien también repasa las claves de la coyuntura y del dossier de este mes, “Europa en clave energética: de la guerra a la transición climática”.
Nuestro economista sénior Josep Mestres participó en un webinar organizado por FUNCAS y el Capítulo Español del Club de Roma para debatir sobre la desigualdad y sus consecuencias económicas y sociales. En él presentó los resultados de las investigaciones llevadas a cabo por CaixaBank Research a partir de datos internos de CaixaBank, así como la reciente publicación del portal de Economía en tiempo real (https://realtimeeconomics.caixabankresearch.com).
Despite COVID-19, house prices in most advanced economies rebounded in 2020, largely thanks to the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies introduced to revive economic activity.
Activity in Spain’s agrifood sector is increasing at a faster rate than across the economy as a whole and the outlook for the 2024-2025 campaign is encouraging. Exports are holding up well in the adverse environment of recent years and the food price rally has begun to slow, although the cumulative increase since 2019 remains significant.
The wine sector plays a fundamental role in Spain, not only in economic terms due to its contribution to activity, employment and exports but also because of how extensively vines are grown and its regional importance, making it a driving force for environmental conservation and rural development. Spain is the world’s second largest exporter of wine in volume and third in value, although in recent years we have seen greater penetration in North America and Asia, markets that tend to buy wine of higher value. After the COVID-19 crisis, wineries and cooperatives must tackle important medium-term challenges and adapt to the new consumption habits of a younger, more digital and environmentally aware public. This strategy includes a commitment to organic farming, online sales and wine tourism.
The Spanish tourism sector faces 2026 from a position of strength, with a positive outlook prospects after stabilisation of post-pandemic growth. In 2025, Spain reaffirmed its global leadership with 97 million international arrivals and record spending of €135 billion, ranking second worldwide. Tourism GDP grew by 2.7% and is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 2.5%-2.7% in the coming years. This scenario reflects a more balanced sector, with clear signs of regional diversification and deseasonalisation, and with emerging segments that boost its added value.
Since Spain’s tourism sector returned in 2023 to the peak levels of 2019, the sector has been showing no signs of cyclical exhaustion and it recorded strong growth in 2024.
In the May issue of the Monthly Report, we include a special dossier to analyse the present and future of the new AI economy, addressing its macroeconomic, business, financial and geopolitical implications. We begin with an overview of the global deployment of AI from a supply-side perspective, analysing the value chain, the role of infrastructure, energy and semiconductor bottlenecks, and the position of different powers in this technological race. We then examine how AI could drive productivity growth, as well as what we know – and do not know – about its effects on employment, emphasising that the leap from microeconomic improvements to macro impacts will be gradual and uneven across countries and sectors. In Spain, AI adoption by firms is advancing rapidly, but remains limited and uneven, posing significant challenges for productivity and for the cohesion of the economy’s productive base. We also address AI governance strategies in the US, China and the EU, and the balances between innovation, regulation and adoption that will shape AI geopolitics in the coming years. Finally, we cover AI in financial markets, the valuations of big tech firms and the risks associated with high concentration and the growing investment needs in infrastructure.
The problem of housing affordability, both rental and ownership, has worsened in recent years and is particularly affecting certain groups such as young people. Solving this issue is no easy task and requires action to be taken on multiple fronts and over an extended time horizon. Public-private collaboration is essential for boosting the supply of affordable housing, and industrialised construction shows promise as a new way to help overcome the major challenges that the sector is facing, such as attracting skilled and female labour, while promoting more digital and sustainable construction methods.
The outbreak of war in Ukraine has overshadowed the positive outlook we were forecasting for the Spanish economy in 2022. While, at the end of last year, some factors had already appeared on the scene that hindered the economic recovery, the armed conflict in Ukraine has become the main focus of attention and the major conditioning factor for short-term economic developments.
The outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors is positive. We expect to see a higher growth rate in sectors linked to the digital transition, such as ICT and professional services, as well as in sectors where the Spanish economy is highly competitive, such as the pharmaceutical and tourism sectors.
Climate change represents a key challenge for the real estate sector and for the entire Spanish economy. In this article, we analyse the risks associated with extreme weather events and the transition risks which the sector must address, as well as the role of public policies.
The most recent real estate market data show that the upward trend in demand and house prices has been accentuated in the early stages of 2022, in line with the positive inertia that the Spanish economy has maintained despite the adverse context. However, in the medium term the outlook is that the real estate market will tend to slow down.
After a year in which demand for housing exceeded all expectations, in 2023 we predict that the number of sales will adjust significantly, mainly due to the impact of higher interest rates. House prices, which tend to respond rather slowly to any fall in demand, will slow markedly although we expect them to maintain a slightly positive growth rate in 2023 (albeit adjusting in real terms due to high inflation). The supply of housing, which is insufficient to meet structural demand due to the creation of new households, will remain very limited as a result of the economic slowdown, high construction costs and waning demand.
The outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors in 2025 and 2026 is strong. Although there remains a high level of uncertainty surrounding the rules that govern global trade, we expect Spain’s GDP to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and by 2.0% in 2026, in a scenario in which the trade tensions remain contained.
Do you want to know the trends of the Spanish economy in an easy and intuitive way? To monitor wages, consumption, tourism, housing affordability and inequality in Spain, by region, age, sex or income level? In this video we show you how CaixaBank Research's Real-time Economics portal works and why it is pioneering in the processing and visualization of internal data.