Clàudia Canals explica las claves de la coyuntura económica del mes de marzo en el nuevo podcast de CaixaBank Research.
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Nuestro Economista jefe comparte las perspectivas de la economía española para el año 2021, en este vídeo para los Accionistas de CaixaBank.
El 9 de febrer tres dels nostres economistes van compartir amb #AmicsdelPaís les “Perspectives econòmiques per al 2021, un any de canvi” de CaixaBank Research en un seminari online que reproduïm en aquest vídeo.
Como cada mes, nuestra economista Clàudia Canals explica las claves de la coyuntura económica en el nuevo podcast de CaixaBank Research. A pesar de las medidas tomadas, Europa sigue yendo un paso por detrás de EE. UU. y por supuesto de China, la única gran economía que creció en 2020. En España, los indicadores de actividad correspondientes al 1T muestran que probablemente el PIB se habría contraído, aunque el mercado laboral recuperara en marzo parte del terreno perdido. En este sentido, nuestras previsiones para la economía española (un 6,0% en 2021) se emplazan algo por debajo de las del Gobierno y las del FMI.
The European Parliament elections this June were held at a key moment for the European construction process, taking into account the economic, political and social challenges that our continent must address in the coming years. Many of these challenges are discussed in the Dossier of this Monthly Report, ranging from the loss of competitiveness in a world that is undergoing a reconfiguration of value chains and relationships between economic blocs, to the revitalisation of productivity and technological development, to the need to push ahead with the capital markets union.
Dossier
Low real interest rates and economic stability
Just over a month since the start of the war in Iran, uncertainty continues to dominate any assessment of the economic outlook. However, it is necessary to evaluate the impact of this new crisis, a matter to which we dedicate a large part of the articles in the April issue of the Monthly Report. Starting with a map of geoeconomic exposure and strategic relevance of the Middle East, we analyse the situation in the oil market and the energy position in Europe and Spain, and examine the main channels through which it could impact the economy: inflation, trade and finance. On the other hand, we assess the progress with the European Competitiveness Compass and the implementation of the NGEU funds in Spain, and we estimate how the interest rate hikes and cuts between 2022 and 2025 have affected Spaniards’ consumption, based on high-frequency data.
The Spanish economy continues to advance at a dynamic pace, maintaining relatively high growth both from a historical perspective and in comparison with most developed economies. On the international stage, the economy is showing resilience as the effects of two major opposing forces – geopolitics and artificial intelligence – fully manifest. The optimism surrounding AI in the US stock market and its comparison with the dot-com bubble is one of the topics analysed this month, as well as the reasons why housing is one of the main concerns of European citizens. In Spain, we also address the Treasury’s funding needs and the relationship between company size or job tenure and wage incomes using anonymised internal data.
Investors traded with cautious optimism at the last session of the week, taking on board a new round of hawkish comments from Fed officials, weak survey data (e. g. the monthly fall in the IFO business climate in March) and the EU-US plan to cut reliance on Russian natural gas. The Ukraine-Russia war has now extended for over 1 month.
Investors' sentiment improved at the end of the week amid comments from Federal Reserve president Jerome Powell signaling that 75 basis points increases are, for now, off the table.
Investors traded with a cautious mood in yesterday’s session amid mixed economic data in the US and a delicate geopolitical situation. Nevertheless, US and NATO comments are for now ruling out the possibility that the missiles hitting Poland had a Russian origin.
Federal Reserve president Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric before the US Senate pushed upwards the financial market expectations for interest rates path ahead. In particular, investors now attach a higher probability to a 50bp hike than to a 25bp move at March’s meeting.
El dólar cambia de ritmo: tras depreciarse un 13% frente al euro en el primer semestre, frenó su caída en verano y ha recuperado algo de terreno desde septiembre. En próximos trimestres, las previsiones de crecimiento e inflación apuntan a un dólar algo más débil, aunque persisten factores que podrían sostenerlo: la resiliencia económica de EE. UU., unos tipos reales más altos en EE. UU. (tras moderarse las expectativas de inflación) y una importante recuperación de su papel como activo refugio.
In the last session of the week, investors traded with an optimistic mood amid steady economic indicators and as the US debt ceiling deal seemed more likely. In fact, on Saturday President Joe Biden and House speaker McCarthy reached a deal to raise the ceiling that will now have to pass Congress.
The Fed delivered a hawkish pause yesterday, leaving interest rates unchanged but acknowledging a strong US economy. The dot-plot projects a tighter policy through 2024 and 2025, consistent with rates higher for longer. US stock indices fell and US Treasury yields rose on the news, with the yield curve flattening, while the USD appreciated.
In Friday’s session, markets traded again with strong risk appetite as investors continued to price in the end of the central banks’ tightening cycle. US employment data showed signs of a cooling labor market, further fueling investors’ expectations of no further rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in a rate cut in June by the Fed and in April by the ECB.
Financial markets rallied globally following lower-than-expected US consumer prices. October CPI was unchanged m/m from September (vs. 0.1% expected) and rose 3.2% y/y (vs. 3.3% expected), down from September’s 3.7%. The market now expects the Fed to cut rates in May, ahead of June as was priced before the release of inflation data.
Markets took a pause after last week’s rally which brought the main stock indices to post their best monthly advance in years, and sovereign bond yields their largest monthly cuts in two years. Investors have now turned cautious ahead of this week’s US employment data while still pricing in the likelihood of interest rate cuts as soon as March 2024.
After the sharp downturn in the sector caused by the pandemic, the recovery of international tourism in Spain can now be considered almost complete. Among the world’s top 10 tourism destinations, Spain was the second to exceed its number of pre-COVID international tourists, behind only Türkiye.
Stronger-than-expected March retail sales in the US casted further doubts on the Federal Reserve’s motives to cut interest rates as soon as this summer. Markets now price a mere 20% probability of a cut in June, and 50% for July.