Investors traded cautiously in a session without any major macroeconomic data releases. Attention shifted to the NATO meeting —where members agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP—, ongoing trade uncertainty, the so-far upheld ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and evolving monetary policy expectations.
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A downward revision of US Q1 GDP, primarily due to weaker private consumption growth (0.1% qoq vs. 0.3% previously estimated), increased market expectations that the Fed could lower interest rates as much as 75bp this year compared to the 50bp expected before.
Investors ended the week in a positive mood, supported by trade deal hopes. Stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields nudged up both in the U.S. and the euro area, while the euro was little changed at $1.17 and Brent oil solidified its weekly dive below $70. Last week, the S&P 500 managed to fully recover from early-2025 losses and closed at all-time highs.
Markets started the week in a mixed mood as investors eye trade negotiations and the central bank meetings in Sintra. Market confidence in Fed rate cuts drove U.S. sovereign yields down, while euro area sovereign yields were little changed. The euro strengthened against the dollar and edged towards $1.18 (a 5-year high).
Investors traded in an apparent risk-on mood in yesterday's session, with both stocks and sovereign yields rising across the board. Commodity prices also increased across energy, metals and agriculture products. In FX markets the USD wavered and the EUR traded close to $1.18. Market sentiment benefited from the announcement of a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal.
U.S. sovereign yields advanced, the USD strengthened moderately and stocks rose after a solid labor market report and as House Republicans came together to pass Trump's budget bill (OBBBA). Investors trimmed expectations about Fed cuts, with market-implied odds of a July cut down to 5% from 25%, and futures on December 2025's FFR rose over 10bp.
Investors ended the week in a cautious mood. With U.S. markets closed on Friday for Independence Day, European stock markets declined across the board while euro area sovereign yields were little changed in both core and peripheral countries. The euro fluctuated close to, but below, $1.18.
Markets were mixed in a session dominated by uncertainty about U.S. tariffs. U.S. stocks dropped and the USD strengthened as the Trump administration threatened higher tariffs on several countries. There were no news related to U.S.-EU trade relations and European stocks advanced. Sovereign yields rose across the U.S. and the euro area.
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session as investors digested Trump's delay of the tariff deadline to August 1. The main U.S. stock indices were little changed, while European stocks rose across the board. The USD was stable against a basket of currencies and the EUR continued to fluctuate around $1.17.
Stocks rallied across advanced economies in yesterday's session, with investors shrugging off Donald Trump's latest round of tariff announcements, but emerging market equities dropped. Sovereign yields declined after a few sessions on the rise.
Investors traded in a mixed mood in a session in which Donald Trump threatened a 35% tariff on Canada (for goods outside USMCA) and floated the idea of a 15%-20% global baseline tariff rate (currently, 10%). Stocks advanced modestly in the U.S. but declined in Europe. Sovereign yields rose, and the EUR weakened and traded below $1.17 (touching 10-day lows).
Investors ended the week with a risk-off session as trade tensions continued to escalate. Over the weekend, President Trump threatened 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports beginning August 1st. Stocks fell across the board, sovereign yields rose and the dollar strengthened, leaving the euro trading just below $1.17.
Investors traded cautiously amid trade tension escalations and heightened uncertainty, with all eyes on today's U.S. CPI report for June. The market's reaction to tariff threats was rather muted, with sovereign yields edging higher on both sides of the Atlantic, and equity markets posting slight gains in the U.S. and slight losses in the euro area.
US headline inflation rose to 2.7% (2.4% in May) and core inflation rose 0.1pp to 2.9%. A detailed breakdown showed prices have begun to rise in some goods categories, suggesting tariffs are beginning to impact. Investors pushed expectations of the first rate cut from September to October, and Treasury yields rose along the curve. The dollar slightly strengthened.
Markets had a choppy session yesterday. News reports that President Trump was considering firing the Fed Chairman sent jitters across markets, pushing Treasury yields higher and the dollar lower. Trump later denied the rumors and Treasuries recovered, while the dollar did not fully erase losses and by the end of the session the euro was close to $1.16.
Sentiment recovered during yesterday's session following a stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report for June (+0.6% mom vs. 0.1% expected, and up from -0.9% in May), highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy. Global stock markets advanced and the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high.
Markets ended the week in a cautious mood. Stocks were mixed, with European indices suffering moderate losses while the S&P 500 ended largely unchanged after having dipped earlier in the session. The earnings season kicked off with mostly solid results. Bitcoin closed "Crypto week" little changed (Trump signed the GENIUS Act on Friday).
Investors traded with caution in the first session of the week. Looming trade negotiation deadlines and the EU's possible retaliatory measures triggered safe-haven flows and a rally in global bonds, with sharp declines in 10-year euro area sovereign yields and narrower peripheral spreads. Gold rose and the EUR strengthened towards $1.17.
Markets had a mixed session yesterday. Sovereign yields continued to decline across the U.S. and euro area, while the EUR crawled back above $1.17 and touched a 10-day high. European stock markets were mixed while the U.S.' S&P 500 wavered. This morning Japan's Nikkei rallied on the back of a U.S.-Japan trade deal that would set tariffs on Japan at 15% (incl. cars).
The announcement of a U.S. - Japan trade deal and hopes of a deal between the EU and the U.S. unleashed investors' risk-on sentiment in yesterday's session. Global stock markets rallied and sovereign yields declined across the board. Safe-haven assets (such as gold and the CHF) retreated while the EUR strengthened towards $1.18.