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The agrifood sector continues to suffer from the sharp rise in production costs and the impact of the drought. However, the decline in agricultural commodity and energy prices on international markets from the peaks reached in 2022 should help contain agricultural production costs and thereby moderate inflationary pressures on food. Nevertheless, the severe drought that has been affecting the Iberian Peninsula since last year has reduced the yields of a large number of crops such as cereals and fruits, impacting both prices (up) and the volume of exports (down). All in all, in value terms agrifood exports continued to grow at a good rate in S1 2023 due to the rise in prices, reflecting the high competitiveness of Spain’s agrifood sector despite the adverse conditions.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/agrifood/production-costs-and-drought-are-affecting-spains-agrifood-sector

The arrival of the pandemic was a severe blow to a sector that was already going through a delicate situation due to trade tensions and disruptions in the automotive industry at a European level. The fall in manufacturing activity in Q2 2020 was sharper than the decline in the economy as a whole, although its subsequent recovery was more vigorous. Some sectors, such as textiles, footwear and beverages and even automobiles, were hit hard and are recovering more slowly, while other sectors, such as pharmaceuticals and food, were hardly affected at all. The lifting of restrictions, progress made with vaccinations and reduction in uncertainty will help to revive consumption and flows of international tourists, all of which are vital to our economy, and this in turn will support manufacturing.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sector-analysis/industry/resurgence-industry-after-pandemic

One of the consequences of the COVID-19 health crisis has been the increased awareness of the population and, by extension, that of politicians regarding the need to include sustainability criteria in economic policies in order to promote a more sustainable and resilient reactivation of the economy. The tourism industry is no stranger to these trends; firstly, because its business can be adversely affected by the consequences of climate change and, secondly, because there is ample scope for the industry to become more sustainable. This article attempts to determine what we understand by sustainability in the tourism sector, how it can be measured, the current situation of Spain’s tourism industry and where it is heading.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/sustainability-tourism-make-or-break

Ariadna is lead economist in the Strategic Planning Department. A Master in Economics and Finance from the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, before joining the Banking Strategy Department, she worked with the Macroeconomics team and, before that, she worked in Frankfurt as a Research Assistant for the European Central Bank in its department of International and European Relations, International Policy Analysis Division. Her areas of study mainly include the Spanish and Portuguese banking systems, focused on business volumes.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/ariadna-vidal-martinez

Luís is an economist for the International Economics & Markets Department. He has a PhD in Economics from Cardiff University and a Master in International Economics and European Studies from Lisbon University. Before joining CaixaBank, he was Visiting Assistant Professor in Economics and the Public Sector at Pompeu Fabra University and a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics and Centre for Research in Health and Economics (CRES-UPF). His areas of study include public economics and macroeconomics and particularly international fiscal policy, specialising in monitoring China and the European Uninon.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/luis-pinheiro-matos

Léopold is an analyst in the Strategic Planning Department. He graduated from the Analysis and Policy in Economics programme at the Paris School of Economics, after studying at the universities of Panthéon-Sorbonne and Toronto. Before joining CaixaBank , Léopold had several experiences in both Europe and Latin America: he was an economic journalist at the French financial daily newspaper Les Echos and worked as an economist at the French Embassy in Buenos Aires and as an economist for Southern Europe at the Crédit Agricole Group. In Madrid, he coordinated the monitoring of macro-financial developments in Latin America, first at Telefónica and, more recently, at Mutua Madrileña, where he was also responsible for the analysis of monetary policy and the Spanish financial sector. Within the Strategic Planning team, his main areas of research include monitoring the macro-financial outlook in Spain and trends that could affect the supply and demand for financial services.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/leopold-jouven

The Spanish economy grew by 5.0% in 2021, a large figure by historical standards but slightly below expectations, considering that GDP growth rates closer to 6.0% had been forecast at the beginning of the year. Several factors, both internal and external, have moderated the strength of this economic recovery. Among the internal factors is the somewhat slower than expected implementation of the NGEU programme, leading to a modest recovery in investment. External factors include higher energy costs and problems in global supply chains, both of which have been considerably aggravated by the war in Ukraine.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/industry/global-context-limiting-recovery-spains-manufacturing-industry

The pharmaceutical industry is a key and strategic sector for Spain’s economy, as was clearly demonstrated by the pandemic. In the past 25 years, the sector has become hugely significant and an important driver of Spanish exports and private R&D investment. Nevertheless, its production capacity still has room for improvement. The future of Spanish industry should be more closely linked to the pharmaceutical sector with a commitment to promote its growth, not only for strategic purposes but also for purely economic reasons, since it is an extremely competitive industry with a great capacity to generate good quality jobs that would help to modernise Spain’s economy.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/industry/spanish-pharmaceutical-industry

The new European Commission has completed its first 100 days amid turmoil in transatlantic relations. The implementation of Trump’s agenda (and the accompanying drama) is accelerating the change in political priorities that was already foreseen for von der Leyen’s second term. The urgent need to build a more competitive EU now seems indivisible from the goal of maintaining the security and integrity of its borders. The next 2028-2034 budget cycle should reflect the bloc’s ambition in relation to these medium-term challenges, but between now and when that budget will be defined, there are tough negotiations to be had on how to finance it and critical questions to be answered on matters such as the future of Ukraine and climate commitments.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/public-sector/shift-eus-political-priorities

In 2020, global trade in high-tech goods fell by just 1%. This resilience, combined with the increase registered in 2021, leads us to pose the following question: are we facing a change of trend in the consumption patterns of technological goods or, on the contrary, will the return to «social normality» revive the pre-pandemic patterns?

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/global-demand-technological-goods-change-trend