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In the context of our revision of the international economic outlook, the aim of this article is to clarify, on the one hand, the US’ current tariff policy and, on the other, to summarise the response from its main trading partners and the state of the ongoing negotiations.

What exactly is productivity and how can we measure it? Where does Spain lie in terms of its productivity compared to the rest of the euro area? With this article, we launch a series on the fundamentals of the Spanish economy, which will continue in the monthly reports of the coming months.

In this second article on globalisation, we analyse the growing fragmentation of the world economy in recent times, focusing on the decoupling between the US and China, and its effects.

Monetary policy has reacted quickly and decisively to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, having successfully played the role of «fire-fighter», the ECB will have to remain highly active to support the revival of the economy.

De-risking, decoupling, fracturing, reshoring, nearshoring, friendshoring... understanding the new era of globalisation

At CaixaBank Research, we are not leaders in research into big data or artificial intelligence. However, we do try to keep an eye on the latest developments in this field in order to improve economic analysis, especially in those areas that are key in order for growth to be more dynamic, more inclusive and more sustainable in the long term.

2025 should be the year of monetary policy untightening, with the ECB and the Fed lowering their interest rates to neutral levels (around 2% and 3%, respectively). These rate cuts will be accompanied by another, less visible normalisation: the reduction of their balance sheets, which have grown exponentially in the last 15 years.

The figures for US GDP in Q1 reveal a contrast between the strength of domestic demand and trade flows that were anticipating the introduction of tariffs, while the euro area has shown accelerated growth. However, this boost could soon run out of steam: the tariffs and their consequences will begin to have a negative impact. For now, there are no clear signs of a slowdown in trade flows, but with uncertainty at peak levels, the global economy is expected to enter into a slowdown, with more risks to the downside and more questions than answers.

The pace of growth of the Spanish economy has slowed, as evidenced by the lower GDP growth rate recorded in Q3. The main reason for this is the weakness of the external environment: the euro area has registered a slight decline in economic activity and its three main economies are stagnant. In contrast, the statistics for household consumption in Spain, one of the pillars of the economy, remain strong.

Although it is nothing new, it is still important to emphasise it: the latest available indicators for the Spanish economy have once again beaten expectations. Despite the continued weakness of Europe and the high global uncertainty, Spain’s economy continues to stand out on the international stage.

The coronavirus pandemic is having a severe impact on emerging economies. Around 100 countries, most of them emerging, are exploring the possibility of obtaining assistance from the IMF or expanding that which they already have in place. Are we entering into a new widespread crisis in the emerging markets like that of the 1980s and 1990s?

With disinflation on track and some signs of a slowdown in economic activity and a cooling of the labour market, monetary policy is shifting gears and starting to dial back the monetary tightening of the past years: going from restrictive to neutral. The ECB and the Fed, along with other major central banks, have initiated this easing process with interest rate cuts, and they are expected to continue doing so in 2025. From there, we will seek to clarify the factors that will guide this new phase of monetary policy.

The Spanish economy continues to have the highest structural unemployment rate in the European Union, despite having managed to reduce it substantially in recent years. To curb it, improvements are needed on three fronts: greater supply and demand for employment and better matching between the two.

The announcement of a significant and widespread increase in tariffs by the Trump administration, coupled with an erratic and unpredictable economic policy, has triggered fears of a further slowdown in the global economy. In this context, it is time to re-evaluate where the Spanish economy currently stands, assessing its strengths and weaknesses in the new scenario.