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Controlling the virus, stimulating demand in the short term, improving the potential for economic growth, thinking about fiscal sustainability in the medium term and boosting the European project are five essential areas to mitigate the effects of the crisis and try to overcome it as soon as possible.

The figures for US GDP in Q1 reveal a contrast between the strength of domestic demand and trade flows that were anticipating the introduction of tariffs, while the euro area has shown accelerated growth. However, this boost could soon run out of steam: the tariffs and their consequences will begin to have a negative impact. For now, there are no clear signs of a slowdown in trade flows, but with uncertainty at peak levels, the global economy is expected to enter into a slowdown, with more risks to the downside and more questions than answers.

In the midst of the storm sparked by the pandemic, the real estate market has maintained a positive tone. Although the heightened uncertainty and the restrictions led to the postponement of home purchase decisions, prices decelerated only slightly and still rose by around 8% in 2020.

In an environment still marked by high uncertainty, multiple factors could modify the course of the Spanish economy in the coming months, both for better and for worse. Three of them stand out: the evolution of energy prices, the resilience of the labour market and the execution of the European NGEU funds.

The savings of Spaniards went from 5,800 euros per household in 2023 to more than 7,000 in 2024. Why has the household savings rate increased and what do we expect for 2025?

The saying goes that better the devil you know than the devil you don’t, but perhaps inflation is a special case. What will happen with inflation in 2023?

In 2024, Spain reduced its exports to the European Union and the United States, so it had to seek out opportunities in new markets in order to diversify and strengthen its trade relations. These new markets primarily included countries in ASEAN, Latin America and the Caribbean Islands, as well as Oceania.

The AIReF has ruled that the pension spending rule agreed with the European Commission has not been violated, although it has pointed out that complying with this rule does not guarantee the sustainability of the pension system or that of the general government as a whole. Moreover, it has warned that it will be necessary to increase government transfers to the Social Security system in order to sustain it between now and 2050.

The announcement of a significant and widespread increase in tariffs by the Trump administration, coupled with an erratic and unpredictable economic policy, has triggered fears of a further slowdown in the global economy. In this context, it is time to re-evaluate where the Spanish economy currently stands, assessing its strengths and weaknesses in the new scenario.

With the general government deficit expected to stabilise at around 4.0% of GDP in 2023, the Treasury’s funding needs will remain high. The market will also have to absorb all of the debt held by the ECB that will not be reinvested by the central bank, after it announced a shift in its strategy in December. In this context, it is useful to put into perspective the volume of debt that the market will have to absorb during 2023.

The coronavirus pandemic is having a severe impact on emerging economies. Around 100 countries, most of them emerging, are exploring the possibility of obtaining assistance from the IMF or expanding that which they already have in place. Are we entering into a new widespread crisis in the emerging markets like that of the 1980s and 1990s?

Reducing the high stock of Spanish public debt will take time, but in today’s economic context there are factors that could help to make the digestion process more bearable than these astronomical figures (1.34 trillion euros in 2020) might suggest.