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In 2024, the global economy remained resilient in an environment marked by restrictive financial conditions and the major international economies managed to grow by more than expected. Nevertheless, 2025 is still set to be a challenging year: the threat of greater economic fragmentation has now been added to the risk map, with an increase in trade barriers and uncertainty.

Monetary policy has reacted quickly and decisively to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, having successfully played the role of «fire-fighter», the ECB will have to remain highly active to support the revival of the economy.

Nuestros economistas Clàudia Canals, Judit Montoriol y Oriol Carreras impartirán hoy un #WebinarCABK organizado por @AccionistasCABK para compartir las conclusiones de su dossier sobre el impacto del teletrabajo. ¡Participa!

The wealth of Portuguese households has increased in recent years and the distribution by level of wealth or employment status shows little difference with respect to the euro area. However, the proportion of liabilities that are borne by the less wealthy half of the population is relatively higher.

The string of supply and demand shocks triggered by the announcements of recent weeks will alter the balances of growth and inflation, while the expectations variable will modulate the effects that will be transmitted through the trade and financial channels. 

In our previous article dedicated to analysing the evolution of investment in Spain, we focused on describing the pattern of investment by type of asset and by sector, and on comparing it with the euro area. In this second article, we want to focus on incentives for investment.

With disinflation on track and some signs of a slowdown in economic activity and a cooling of the labour market, monetary policy is shifting gears and starting to dial back the monetary tightening of the past years: going from restrictive to neutral. The ECB and the Fed, along with other major central banks, have initiated this easing process with interest rate cuts, and they are expected to continue doing so in 2025. From there, we will seek to clarify the factors that will guide this new phase of monetary policy.

Although it is nothing new, it is still important to emphasise it: the latest available indicators for the Spanish economy have once again beaten expectations. Despite the continued weakness of Europe and the high global uncertainty, Spain’s economy continues to stand out on the international stage.

Stable economic outlook but with increasing risks: geopolitical instability, uncertainty and a lack of confidence.

The international economy has returned from the summer with signs of resilience, less uncertainty, but more tariffs. There are indications of an improvement in European activity in Q3, signs of a less robust labour market in the United States, and divergent inflation between the two sides of the Atlantic.

2025 will be a year in search of a new normal, threatened by the division between economic blocs. The best outcome would be to regain multilateral cooperation in order to tackle the new challenges and spread the risks together. 

The tailwinds generated by the latest inflation data and strong labour markets coexist with a natural loss of cyclical momentum and, in particular, with an environment marked by high geopolitical risks. This combination of competing forces will determine the pace of growth over the coming quarters.