Spain’s real estate market started to slow down by mid-2022 with the change in monetary policy. For the time being, and despite the fact that the ECB has already raised its benchmark interest rates by 4 bp, the pace of this slowdown is proving to be gentler than anticipated, leading us to improve our forecasts for the sector in 2023. However, looking ahead to the coming quarters, we still expect a marked dip in the number of sales from the high figures recorded in 2022 as well as a slowdown in house price growth, especially in 2024, within the context of higher interest rates for longer. Nevertheless, there are several factors that will continue to support the sector and make a sharp correction such as the one seen in 2008-2013 unlikely, including a resilient labour market and significant inflows of immigrants.
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Tuesday saw another volatile session in the financial markets. Risk appetite rebounded from the Asian session on hopes of Trump's willingness to negotiate tariffs with some partners, which extended into the European session and the start of the US session. Asian and european stocks rose and while eurozone government bond yields rose slightly.
Markets continued to exhibit a mixed performance as investors weighed data releases and increasing COVID-19 infections. European stocks and sovereign yields declined after euro area industrial production had posted a lower-than-expected rebound in May (+12.4% mom and -20.9% yoy). Yet, in FX markets the euro rose towards $1.14.
On Thursday, in the last session before the Easter holidays, stock markets posted gains both in the U.S. (S&P 500 +1.4%) and in Europe (Eurostoxx 50 +0.9%). Yesterday, European stock markets were still closed but U.S. markets opened back with losses (S&P 500 -2.2%).
A week-long losing streak in global stock markets ceased on Friday as better than expected earnings results outweighed a worsening of coronavirus cases in the US and Europe. In Europe, the Eurostoxx50 ended the session 1.7% higher despite new coronavirus retrictions in some cities, while the S&P 500 edged up very slightly.
In yesterday's mixed trading session, the Eurostoxx50 posted a 0.3% loss and European sovereign bond yields edged up as data showed a deterioration of consumer confidence in the euro area.
In the last session of the week, inflation and GDP releases centered the stage in European trading floors. HICP inflation for October surprised on the upside in most euro area countries as well as Q3 GDP figures for Germany (+0.2 q/q instead of the expected contraction). Today aggregated figures for the euro area will be released.
A quiet session on Wednesday as US markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday. In the eurozone, government bond yields rose and peripheral spreads widened after the European Commission opened an excessive deficit procedure for France, Italy, Belgium and five other member states under the 2024 European Semester Spring Package.
New lockdowns in Europe shook investor sentiment yesterday. Volatility jumped to levels not seen since early June and stock markets tumbled across the world (the main U.S. and European indices dropped by close to 4%). Euro area core sovereign yields declined while peripheral spreads rose, and the EUR weakened below $1.18.
Investors ended the week in a cautious mood. With U.S. markets closed on Friday for Independence Day, European stock markets declined across the board while euro area sovereign yields were little changed in both core and peripheral countries. The euro fluctuated close to, but below, $1.18.
Jornada de apetito por el riesgo en los mercados europeos. La consecución ayer de un acuerdo entre las autoridades europeas y el Gobierno griego para desbloquear 10.000 millones de euros del tercer rescate heleno fue el principal catalizador de esta dinámica constructiva.
Activity in Spain’s real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump during the first lockdown. In Q3 2020, house sales and new building permits recovered much of the ground lost, a positive trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. Moreover, the impact of the crisis on house prices has been relatively moderate so far, although we expect these will continue to adjust in the latter part of 2020 and the first half of 2021. In particular, CaixaBank Research’s new house price forecasting models at the level of province, based on large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques, predict that house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow very moderately in the rest.
Investors traded with optimism during yesterday's session. In Europe, the upward revision of the German Q4 GDP (from +0.1% qoq to +0.3%), supported by exports and construction, led to a rise of 0.5% in Eurostoxx50. European sovereign yields also rose and peripheral spreads widened slightly.
Las bolsas europeas vuelven a frenarse a pesar de las mejores previsiones de crecimiento de la Comisión Europea para la eurozona, pero con un decepcionante dato de pedidos de fábrica en Alemania.
Las bolsas europeas han registrado ligeras caídas ante la reunión del BCE de este próximo jueves. Se espera que el banco central no anuncie medidas de estímulo adicionales tras conocerse la mejoría delas condiciones de crédito en la eurozona. En España, el Ibex35 ha sufrido un mayor ajuste (-1,05%) que sus homólogos europeos por los informes de analistas que han avanzado cierto pesimismo sobre la campaña de resultados de la banca, que comienza hoy.
The Spanish housing market is in the midst of a boom, driven by lower interest rates, the improvement in purchasing power and population growth. Demand continues to grow sharply, with foreign buyers playing a notable role, while supply is also steadily gaining traction, although it still does not compensate for the housing deficit accumulated since 2021. House prices continue to accelerate, now exceeding the peak reached in 2007 in nominal terms, and signs of overvaluation are beginning to become apparent. However, the current context differs from the one prior to the bursting of the housing bubble: rather than an oversupply, there is a serious housing deficit, and that is what primarily explains the pressure on prices; moreover, households, the construction and developer sector, and the financial system are in a strong financial position. We expect prices and sales to remain dynamic in the coming quarters, underscoring the need to increase the supply of affordable housing.
Our Sectoral Indicator reflects a widespread improvement across the various sectors in 2024, particularly in some branches of manufacturing, such as the chemicals, pharmaceutical and paper industries, which have benefited from lower energy costs and an improvement in exports. By contrast, the automotive sector has slowed sharply over the course of this year, following the recovery experienced in 2023.
Nuestro economista Adrià Morron participó en un webinar para Accionistas CaixaBank en el que explicó en detalle cuáles son nuestras perspectivas de tipos de interés, en momento clave para la política monetaria del BCE y la Fed.
In a quiet session due to the President's Day holiday in the US, traders continued to weigh incoming economic data (eg consumer confidence in the eurozone rose to -19 from -20.7) with the hawkish tone from central bank officials. In this context, yields on sovereign bonds ticked up in the euro area, nearing year-to-date highs.