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In the final session of the week, market sentiment was mixed on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, government bond yields remained fairly flat following Thursday’s ECB meeting, after which investors see a first rate cut in April as more plausible. Major European stock market indices rallied on this expectation, posting a week of strong gains.

Judit Montoriol comparte los principales mensajes del Informe Sectorial de Agroalimentario 2020 en el webinario “Oportunidades y motivos para invertir en la industria agroalimentaria” organizado el 25 de noviembre por AgroBank y CNTA. Tras resumir la situación de la economía mundial y española en el contexto de laCOVID-19, la autora analiza cómo resistió el sector agroalimentario los peores meses de la pandemia desde el punto de vista de la oferta, la demanda y las exportaciones, y cuáles son las principales tendencias de digitalización que se están incorporando en el sector.

In yesterday’s session, investors had to weigh mixed economic data indicators, as flash PMIs showed how the manufacturing sector in the euro area weakened slightly in March, deep below the 50-points threshold, while the services index managed to increase (52.9 for the euro area).

Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session as they await key economic releases this week, including euro area 1Q GDP (today), which is expected to show the economy grew 0.2% yoy, euro area April inflation (today) expected to stay at 2.4% yoy, and the Fed’s FOMC meeting tomorrow, where markets anticipate no changes to the Fed’s target rate.

In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid growing COVID-19 cases and better-than-expected Q3 GDP releases in the euro area (euro area aggregate +12.7 vs Consensus +9.6; Spain +16.7 vs Consensus +13.5%). 

Global markets started the week with a mixed session. In Europe, stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields advanced as investors eyed negotiations over the EU stimulus plan ahead of the European Council.

Wednesday saw another mixed session in the financial markets ahead of today's US inflation report. Government bond yields rose slightly in the eurozone and more sharply in the US. The move in the eurozone came as some ECB officials expressed doubts about a rate cut in October, which had so far been favoured by most of the bank's officials who spoke.

Investors closed the week driven by the November PMI indices, which showed a growing divergence between the Eurozone and US economies. In the US, the composite index climbed to a 31-month high of 55.3 on hopes of pro-business policies from Trump. In the eurozone, both the services and manufacturing indices fell below 50 and disappointed.

Investor sentiment diverged on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. In the Eurozone, government bond yields were mixed, with French spreads widening after the European Commission endorsed the French draft budget for 2025, which aims to reduce public deficit from 6.1% of GDP to 5%. The budget has yet to be approved in parliament amid a political stalemate.

With US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, European investors remained focused on the French budget impasse. Eurozone bond yields fell and peripheral spreads narrowed yesterday as Barnier's government weighed concessions on limiting electricity tax hikes, as demanded by Le Pen, to avert a no-confidence vote.

The advance PMI figures for December extended the recent trend of divergent growth between the US and euro area countries. The composite PMI in the US rose from 54.9 last month to 56.6, whereas the euro area composite index stayed below 50, albeit improving from 48.3 to 49.5, boosted by a recovery in the services sector (to 51.4).

Investors started the first full week of trading of the year with a slightly higher risk appetite than at the end of December. In the eurozone, German government bond yields rose after December CPI came in above expectations, while peripheral spreads fell as the final December PMI reading surprised to the upside across the eurozone, but especially in the periphery.

Following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, during which the Fed signaled a cautious path ahead, euro area financial markets caught up to their US counterparts during yesterday's session. Sovereign bond yields rose by +6bp in the region, and the main equity indices ended sharply lower. Meanwhile, the euro traded around $1.03 against the dollar.