En los últimos años, la inflación europea ha sido inferior a lo deseado por el BCE y, desde 2018, incluso ha ido perdiendo dinamismo. Esta debilidad se ha intensificado con la crisis de la COVID-19. ¿Será esta debilidad temporal o permanente?
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Dossier
The great green opportunity after COVID-19
Clàudia Canals aborda las perspectivas de la economía internacional en 2021 en este webinario organizado por CaixaBank Talks el 16 de diciembre.
Dossier
Democracies in times of pandemic
European stocks and bond yields fell yesterday as Italy, France, Germany and Spain suspend vaccinations with the AstraZeneca vaccine over worries about the jabs' side-effects. Meanwhile, Italy has taken more stringent lockdown measures. The Eurostoxx50 was down by 0.1%.
Investors traded in a positive mood yesterday as the European stock market rose 0.6% on the back of good earnings reports and positive soft data. In Germany, the ZEW business expectations index rose to 71.2 in March from 61.8 in February, its highest level in months. Euro area periphery sovereign yields widened slightly.
European equities performed well on Thursday after the Federal Reserve raised its growth forecast for the US, and the Eurostoxx50 rose 0.5%. Banks and automakers led the gains, as they are favored by rising market interest rates.
Dossier
The financial impact of climate change
In the last session of last week, European shares and the S&P 500 scaled new peaks while yields on U.S., Japanese and euro area government debt fell as investors embraced the easy monetary policies of major central banks.
In the May issue of the Monthly Report, we include a special dossier to analyse the present and future of the new AI economy, addressing its macroeconomic, business, financial and geopolitical implications. We begin with an overview of the global deployment of AI from a supply-side perspective, analysing the value chain, the role of infrastructure, energy and semiconductor bottlenecks, and the position of different powers in this technological race. We then examine how AI could drive productivity growth, as well as what we know – and do not know – about its effects on employment, emphasising that the leap from microeconomic improvements to macro impacts will be gradual and uneven across countries and sectors. In Spain, AI adoption by firms is advancing rapidly, but remains limited and uneven, posing significant challenges for productivity and for the cohesion of the economy’s productive base. We also address AI governance strategies in the US, China and the EU, and the balances between innovation, regulation and adoption that will shape AI geopolitics in the coming years. Finally, we cover AI in financial markets, the valuations of big tech firms and the risks associated with high concentration and the growing investment needs in infrastructure.
Investors traded in a cautious mood in the first session of the week. Volatility rose, U.S. equities declined moderately and European and EM stocks nudged up.
Yesterday markets steadied after a few mixed sessions. Volatility nudged down and European stocks rebounded, while U.S. equities posted moderate gains.
Investors ended the week with mixed results, as fears intensified that inflationary pressures are building up across the globe. The headline HICP in the Eurozone rose to levels not seen since 2008 (3.4% y/y in September) while in the U.S. the PCE deflator remained elevated (4.3% y/y august).
In the first session of the week, investors sentiment worsened and stock indices declined across the board, led by the tech sector. The euro area Sentix Confidence Index fell by 2.7 points to 16.9 in October, the third consecutive decline.
Yesterday investors traded with optimism amid better than expected economic sentiment data in advanced economies. In particular, the U.S. non-manufacturing ISM index for September increased by 0.2 points to 61.9 while the final Composite PMI in the euro area remained at elevated levels (56.2) despite falling by 2.8 points.
In yesterday's session, investors’ sentiment worsened in the euro area, amid inflationary concerns, while in the U.S. investors focused their attention on a potential breakthrough in negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to extend the debt ceiling and on the better than expected ADP employment report.
In yesterday's session, financial markets traded with an optimistic tone amid positive corporate earnings releases in the U.S. and across Europe. Investors remain concerned, though, about inflationary pressures as the Fed's Beige Book reported significant increases in prices and wages in a decelerating economy.
Financial markets ended the week with mixed results, balancing the positive tone from the corporate results for the Q3 earning season with disappointing survey economic data in Europe.
In an eventful session, investors traded with a risk-on mood and stock indices rose in the U.S. and in most euro area trading floors. In fixed-income markets, sovereign yields edged up in both sides of the Atlantic, specially so in Italy, where Mario Draghi presented the 2022 fiscal budget with some tax cuts and an increase in the retirement age.
The situation of the tourism sector improved considerably during the summer months, outperforming the projections of many of the companies in the industry. The vaccination of a large part of the population, the implementation of the EU Digital COVID Certificate, the great pent-up demand for tourism services and the easing of restrictions in the hospitality industry have been the compendium of factors that have supported a significant and necessary recovery for the sector.