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The ECB lowered interest rates by 25bp and left the deposit rate at 3%. The central bank also removed a reference in its guidance to keeping interest rates sufficiently restrictive, a sign that further policy easing is probably coming. Following the meeting, the probability of a 50bp rate cut in January, instead of 25bp, has risen from 30% to above 60%.
The Spanish tourism sector has entered a new phase of more moderate growth following years of strong expansion in the wake of the post-pandemic recovery. In this context, the restaurant industry continues its strong performance in 2025, with solid growth in spending, while US tourism shows signs of slowing down due to economic uncertainty.
Against a backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions, uncertain tariff negotiations and fiscal imbalances in key economies, this summer edition of the Monthly Report looks at how trade fragmentation and the pursuit of strategic autonomy are redefining the international economic order. At the same time, it examines other issues that are key to the Spanish economy, ranging from the relationship between employment growth and productivity, to the impact of unexpected events such as the April blackout.