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The world after COVID-19
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https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/monthly-report/445/may-2020/world-after-covid-19
Yesterday, investors in the US traded with optimism as the Federal Reserve kept its official interest rates unchanged and reiterated its intention to "act as appropriate to support the economy".
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session as the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell announced a change to the longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy. Volatility rose and stocks declined moderately across AEs and EMs.
Activity in Spain’s real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump during the first lockdown. In Q3 2020, house sales and new building permits recovered much of the ground lost, a positive trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. Moreover, the impact of the crisis on house prices has been relatively moderate so far, although we expect these will continue to adjust in the latter part of 2020 and the first half of 2021. In particular, CaixaBank Research’s new house price forecasting models at the level of province, based on large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques, predict that house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow very moderately in the rest.
Yesterday, investors traded in a low volatility environment as the Fed's last meeting minutes reiterated its intention to keep the monetary policy stance unchanged for some time. Nevertheless, as it was anticipated in the dot plot, several members argued that they would favor raising rates earlier than the FOMC’s median view.
The ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by 978,000 jobs, the biggest increase since June last year. Additional figures of the services sector showed signs of economic improvement. On the other hand, President Joe Biden may be open to hike the corporate tax rate below 28%.
Dossier
The financial impact of climate change
Investors ended the week on a positive mood, supported by upbeat corporate earnings and favourable economic data. Markit's composite PMIs showed that July economic activity remained solid in the U.S. (59.7 points) and accelerated in Europe (EA: 60.6 points, a 21-year high; Germany: 62.5; France: 56.8).
Dossier
NGEU European Funds: the spring board for the digital leap
Markets started the week on a moderately positive note. In a session with no major economic releases, volatility declined, stocks rose moderately across advanced economies, and EM equities were mixed.
Investors traded in a cautious mood in the first session of the week. Volatility rose, U.S. equities declined moderately and European and EM stocks nudged up.
Yesterday markets steadied after a few mixed sessions. Volatility nudged down and European stocks rebounded, while U.S. equities posted moderate gains.
Markets started the first two sessions of the week with mixed results, with fears about rising inflation and slowing growth remaining the key themes among investors, and ahead of the start of the Q3 corporate earnings season.
Financial markets ended the day with positive results, as better-than-expected Q3 corporate earnings and economic data (new jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 293k last week) outweighed worries about inflationary pressures.
Financial markets ended the week on a positive tone, on the back of better-than-expected Q3 corporate results and economic data releases in the U.S. In particular, retail sales rose by 0.7% mom in September, well above the Bloomberg consensus (0.2% decline).
In yesterday's session, financial markets traded with an optimistic tone amid positive corporate earnings releases in the U.S. and across Europe. Investors remain concerned, though, about inflationary pressures as the Fed's Beige Book reported significant increases in prices and wages in a decelerating economy.
In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously as they weighed signs of building inflationary pressures with positive corporate results and better-than-expected economic data releases.
Financial markets ended the week with mixed results, balancing the positive tone from the corporate results for the Q3 earning season with disappointing survey economic data in Europe.
Investors traded with a risk-on mood on Tuesday, extending recent gains across equity markets following the release of positive economic data and solid corporate results.
Investors traded with a risk-on mood yesterday, after the confirmation that the Fed will begin this month to taper its net asset purchases, but that it will keep its policy interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, at least until the economy reaches full employment.