Investors ended the week on a positive note, following the release of solid labour market data in the US: non-farm payrolls rose by 850K in June while the unemployment rate remained broadly stable at 5.9%. As a result, equity indices rose in both sides of the Atlantic, reaching new records in the US.
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Treasury yields fell as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified before Congress that rising inflation is likely to be transitory and that the central bank would continue to support the economy. The Bank of Japan left its 10-year bond yield target unchanged at about 0% after concluding its meeting and also kept the policy-balance rate at -0.1%.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment improved and recovered from Monday’s lows amid upbeat corporate results. Stock indices in the euro area and in the US rose as traders bought the dip (the S&P 500 registered its biggest daily increase since March).
Yesterday investors paused their concerns on the evolution of the pandemic and traded with an optimistic mood amid better-than-expected corporate results. Since the start of the earnings season, more than 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have released results have beaten analysts’ expectations.
The new forward guidance of the ECB, a tilt more dovish, was received smoothly by financial markets in a session where investor sentiment continued to improve on the back of positive corporate results.
Asian stocks dropped markedly on Monday, following the crackdown by the Chinese government on education and tech companies. Investors in Europe and the U.S., however, shrugged off the spike in volatility, bolstered by optimism over the corporate earnings season.
Markets were mixed in a light-volume session with no major economic releases. A rebound in Chinese equities and rising commodity prices supported EM currencies and triggered gains across emerging-economy stock markets. In advanced-economies, U.S. equities rose moderately while European markets closed mixed.
Markets traded on a positive mood as investors wait for central-bank guidance. Volatility declined and stocks posted moderate gains across advanced and emerging economies.
Financial markets ended the day with mixed results, as investors digested a decision by the ECB to scale down its asset purchases and, separately, hawkish comments by some Fed officials about the likely start of tapering this year. These fears outweighed positive labour data in the US (new jobless claims fell to 310k last week, a pandemic-era low).
Investors ended the week in a mixed mood. Volatility jumped and stock markets declined across many advanced economies. In contrast, EM equities posted moderate gains.
In a session with a Triple witching hour in the U.S., an event that usually increases volume and volatility as several futures and options expire simultaneously, stock indices declined in the euro area and in the U.S. while sovereign yields edged moderately up on both sides of the Atlantic.
2020 will go down in history as the year of COVID but it will also be remembered that, faced by a very difficult situation, the response provided by the food chain was extraordinary, guaranteeing an uninterrupted supply to all Spanish households. A year and a half later, the primary sector still looks remarkably dynamic, although the exceptional growth rates posted during the most critical months of the pandemic have now been left behind.
The UK economy barely grew in Q3 (0.1% quarter-on-quarter), representing a slowdown compared to the growth rates seen in the first half of the year (0.7% in Q1 – due to the anticipation effect of the tariff war unleashed by Trump – and 0.3% in Q2); GDP continues to grow, but at a pace that remains too slow to be considered sustained expansion.
Following a robust recovery in 2024, the Peruvian economy continues to expand at a favourable pace, though somewhat more moderately, primarily due to a slowdown in private consumption, which is being constrained by the mounting political and social instability affecting the country.
The Colombian economy has shown signs of stabilising in recent quarters. The upturn in activity is being supported by private consumption, which is 6 pp above its pre-pandemic level, thanks to a strong labour market – with the unemployment rate remaining below the historical average – and rising real household incomes, boosted by the increase in the minimum wage (+23% since 2023) and the expansion of social programmes.
The Australian economy lost some momentum in Q3, with real GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (vs. 0.7% in Q2), slightly below the 0.6% anticipated by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and the year-on-year rate rose by 0.1% to 2.1% (due to the upgrade of the previous quarter).
Chile is growing at around its potential rate (2.6% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026). The country’s fundamentals – fiscal rule, credible monetary policy, market access and investment grade credit rating – remain robust and, despite being patchy, the labour market recovery has allowed consumption to improve thanks to real wage growth (due to the increase in the minimum wage and the gradual reduction in working hours).
The US economy has proven to be remarkably resilient in 2025 despite a complex landscape marked by trade tensions and high political and economic uncertainty. In the first half of 2025, GDP grew at an annualised rate of close to 1.6%, driven mainly by technology investment (AI), which contributed 1.4 pp, and by consumption which, despite slowing, is continuing to make a contribution, even amid weakening confidence and rising prices due to tariffs.
In 2025, China’s economy remained robust, albeit with certain nuances. Over the whole year, growth reached the 5.0% target set by the Chinese authorities, although in Q4 it was 4.5% year-on-year, the lowest in three years. The indicators showed that there was a slight slowdown in the second half of the year: consumption lost momentum, investment contracted to historical lows and the growth rate of industrial production slowed.