The COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting economic activity and the real estate sector is also feeling the effects, albeit not as much as other sectors. Specifically, at CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020 and not to return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2023. However, despite the seriousness of the situation and the high uncertainty regarding how the pandemic will develop, it is important to note that the sector is supported by a much stronger foundation than in the previous crisis of 2008.
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Markets continued to exhibit a mixed performance as investors weighed data releases and increasing COVID-19 infections. European stocks and sovereign yields declined after euro area industrial production had posted a lower-than-expected rebound in May (+12.4% mom and -20.9% yoy). Yet, in FX markets the euro rose towards $1.14.
Positive developments around a potential COVID-19 vaccine fueled a risk-on mood in yesterday's session. Stocks rose across advanced and emerging economies and, in the U.S., shares of Moderna - a company working on a vaccine - surged close to 7% after a small-scale study showed its experimental vaccine produced high levels of antibodies.
In the first session of the week, investor sentiment improved as promising trial results from a potential COVID-19 vaccine renewed investor's hopes.
Financial markets started the week with a mixed session. In Europe, investors traded with a risk-off mood while in the US riskier assets benefited from progress in the negotiations for a new fiscal stimulus package and hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine.
COVID-19 is having a huge impact on economic activity in Spain and, in particular, on the tourism industry. At CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020, not returning to its pre-crisis levels until 2023. The outlook in 2020 is even grimmer for Spain's tourism industry as it is one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic.
In the first session of the week, investors traded with a risk-off mood amid rising COVID-19 cases and concerns that the Delta variant might delay the economic recovery. Demand for safe haven assets (such as US Treasuries, the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen) increased.
The spread of new COVID-19 cases weakened investor's sentiment in the last session of August. Stock indices declined in most advanced and emerging economies except for the heavy technology-weighted Nasdaq index, in the US, and the Japanese Nikkei.
Last Friday, markets ended one of their best weeks since summer as economically-sensitive assets regained momentum on the back of positive COVID-19 vaccine developments.
Positive news on another COVID-19 vaccine sparked a rally in financial markets at the start of the week. As Moderna reported that its vaccine was 94.5% effective (data from a preliminary analysis of a large late-stage clinical trial), stocks surged across the world, led by sectors sensitive to mobility restrictions, while at-home tech equities declined.
As investors weighed positive vaccine developments against rising COVID-19 infections, yesterday markets took a pause after having rallied in the last few days.
Financial markets were mixed in the last session of the week amid hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine, the advance of the second wave and growing tensions between the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve.
Economic sentiment data and new advances in a vaccine treatment for COVID-19 were the main drivers of a mixed session in financial markets. On the one hand, the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc said that their vaccine prevented 70% of the participants from falling ill. This effectiveness rises to 90% with an alternative treatment.
Investors continued to trade cautiously in yesterday's session as COVID-19 cases continued rising in Europe and in the US. In this context, demand for safe assets (such as the Japanese Yen or the Swiss Franc) increased on a day in which US markets were closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Global stocks are set to have their best month on record as optimism about a Covid-19 vaccine and Joe Biden's victory in the US elections caused a market rally in November.
Investors on Monday traded in their gains after one of the best months in decades for stock markets, during which breakthroughs in Covid-19 vaccines boosted stock valuations in sectors affected by the pandemic.
Yesterday's trading session was dominated by news that Pfizer had halved the amount of Covid-19 vaccines that it hoped to distribute in 2021 due to supply chain issues, which provoked a late-afternoon sell-off in the S&P 500 which closed 0.1% lower on the day.
Financial markets started the week with a mixed tone in a session with the US markets closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Investors traded cautiously as they weighed rising COVID number across the globe, Joe Biden's stimulus plan and Q4 GDP numbers in China. (+2.6 qoq, +6.5% yoy, leaving 2020’s annual growth at 2.3%).
Stocks slid in Europe amid rising concerns over delays to the vaccine rollout in the continent and the economic impact of a new strain of COVID-19. A vaccine produced by AstraZeneca and Oxford University was approved by the EU's regulator on Friday but difficulties in delivering shipments to the bloc are leading to rising tensions.
Investors continued trading in a risk-on mood yesterday as the vaccination process continues, and, symbolically, the number of people vaccinated across the world reaches the number of COVID-19 cases.