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In a context marked by the uncertainty generated by the tariff tensions, a topic to which we devote several articles, in this Monthly Report we update the economic forecast scenario for 2025 and 2026. We also review the forecasts for the Spanish real estate market, which is in the midst of a boom, and evaluate the economic recovery of the province of Valencia six months after the floods.

We dedicate the dossier of the December issue to one of the major determining factors for social well-being and cohesion: inequality. Through the monthly monitoring of internal data that we have carried out since the pandemic, we are able to confirm the downward trend of inequality in Spain, contrary to that observed in the main developed economies, and we stop to examine the recent evolution of Spain’s middle class. In other articles of the report, also using internal data, we analyse the economic impact of the floods in Valencia and how households in Catalan municipalities in a state of drought adjusted their water consumption. In addition, we study the exposure of the Spanish, European and Chinese economies to tariff hikes in the United States.

We are living increasingly longer and healthier lives – excellent news for all of us. However, this longevity, combined with a persistently low birth rate, is reconfiguring the demographic structure of our societies. In our latest Dossier, we analyse this important demographic shift, as well as its impact on growth, public finances, and savings and interest rates. We also analyse in depth other topical issues, such as the adjustment of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy and operational framework, the European Union’s 2025-2028 budget and the feasibility of it increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP. In the sphere of the Spanish economy, we lay out the causes of departures from employment and the evolution of the incomes of the middle class in recent years.

The Spanish economy continues to advance at a dynamic pace, maintaining relatively high growth both from a historical perspective and in comparison with most developed economies. On the international stage, the economy is showing resilience as the effects of two major opposing forces – geopolitics and artificial intelligence – fully manifest. The optimism surrounding AI in the US stock market and its comparison with the dot-com bubble is one of the topics analysed this month, as well as the reasons why housing is one of the main concerns of European citizens. In Spain, we also address the Treasury’s funding needs and the relationship between company size or job tenure and wage incomes using anonymised internal data.