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European investors began the week with a risk-off tone, as US markets were closed for the Martin Luther King holiday. Sentiment deteriorated after Trump announced plans to impose new tariffs on European countries siding with Denmark in the Greenland dispute and the EU hinted at possible retaliation.

Markets turned risk-off on Tuesday as Trump renewed tariff threats against Europe linked to his controversial Greenland acquisition proposal. Equity indices fell on both sides of the Atlantic, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading losses. Implied volatility rose, pushing the VIX higher.

Investor risk appetite improved after Trump ruled out using force to acquire Greenland and signaled a NATO framework for a potential deal over it, abandoning earlier tariff threats on Europe. This supported most US financial assets during the session and made implied volatility fell markedly across asset classes.

Risk-on dominated markets for a second day as Trump’s Greenland spat faded. US short-term Treasury yields slipped after upbeat macro data: Q3 GDP was revised to 4.4% SAAR, November consumer spending stayed firm, while initial jobless claims ticked higher in the week ended January 17.

On Friday, the Japanese yen strengthened sharply after the Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 0.75% and signaled a hawkish stance. Speculation around potential currency intervention intensified after New York Fed officials reportedly sought information on the yen’s exchange rate, and Prime Minister Takaichi warned of action against “abnormal” market moves.

During yesterday's session, the Japanese equity index Nikkei-225 fell nearly 2% amid concerns over a potential currency intervention. Global stocks advanced modestly, as investors traded cautiously ahead of a heavy earnings calendar, with major tech firms reporting later this week (up to 33% of the S&P 500 capitalization reports this week).

With the focus on today’s Fed policy rate decision, widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, euro area government bond yields ended yesterday's session flat, while the US yield curve slightly steepened. Investors will be attentive to any hints given in the FOMC press conference for future rate paths.

As expected, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a somewhat hawkish tone, highlighting activity strength, labor market stabilization and elevated inflation. Treasury yields ended the session flat and the dollar rebounded from its sharp decline since last Friday, gaining against the euro and the yen.

With investor focus on the tech sector, equity markets moved lower during the session. US stock indices posted modest losses, with tech stocks under pressure as investors continued to digest Q4 earnings results. European indices were weighed by losses in business software companies amid concerns over the potential disruptive impact of AI on their business models.

Mixed session to close off the week, with US investors reacting to President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, while euro area markets focused on stronger-than-expected economic data, including upside surprises in GDP growth from Spain and Germany.

Investors kicked off the week on a cautious footing, ahead of the ECB’s meeting later this week, which is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged (depo rate at 2%), while markets continued to digest Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Sentiment was also weighed by the sharp sell-off in precious metals that began late last week.

Rising concerns over intensifying competition in the AI sector triggered a sharp sell-off in technology stocks, weighing on broader market sentiment. Euro area equity indices mostly closed modestly lower, while US equities saw larger declines. On both sides of the Atlantic, cyclical sectors, including industrials and energy, outperformed on a relative basis.

The ECB kept rates on hold at 2%, as expected, with Christine Lagarde noting that both rates and inflation remain in a “good place”. She also played down concerns around euro strength and risks linked to Chinese trade, signalling limited scope for policy easing below the 2% level.The BoE kept rates unchanged at 3.75%, albeit with a surprisingly dovish tone.

In the last session of the week, equity markets edged modestly higher, despite lingering doubts over the return on Big Tech investment in AI and questions around the robustness of corporate fundamentals, set against a backdrop of generally supportive macroeconomic data.

Yesterday session was risk-on, with global stocks advancing, led by Japan, where the Nikkei-225 registered gains of nearly 4% after the Liberal Democratic Party obtained the supermajority in the Lower House elections, allowing prime minister Sanae Takaichi to continue pursuing expansionary fiscal policies.

In yesterday's session, weaker-than-expected US retail sales in December combined with expected lower consumption due to harsh winter conditions, reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts during the year, with the first one occurring in June. Today key employment data will be released which should add further clarity on the interest-rate path.

Yesterday's data releases showed a stronger-than-expected labour market in the US, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130k in January and unemployment rate easing 0.1pp to 4.3%. The data reinforced market expectations that the Fed will deliver two rate cuts this year, likely starting in the summer, rather than signaling an earlier or more aggressive easing cycle.

Trading activity was subdued at the start of the week, with US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and mainland Chinese exchanges shut for the Lunar New Year holidays. With no major macroeconomic releases elsewhere, markets lacked clear catalysts, resulting in limited price action.

Geopolitics were in investors’ focus yesterday, after Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran and the US had reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of a potential nuclear agreement. Commodity prices declined on the news, with Brent crude edging lower toward $67.5/barrel, European natural gas falling below €30/MWh, and gold also retreating.