The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, while striking a hawkish tone and projecting higher inflation. Chair Powell noted that the economic impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain but could add to inflationary pressures and weigh on activity. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, as expectations for a rate cut in 2026 declined toward 50%, while equities ended lower and the dollar strenthened.
Cerca a CaixaBank Research
Resultats de la cerca
704 resultats per a Caixa now
Friday's session was again driven by inflationary concerns amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent prices settled over $110/barrel and market volatility rose as President Trump pledged to send more troops to Iran and to intervene in the Kharg island to reopen the Strair of Hormuz.
Yesterday’s session saw a sharp turnaround in sentiment. Markets initially opened under pressure, with equities declining and sovereign yields rising amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices. Sentiment shifted after President Trump announced a temporary halt to planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, following reports of constructive talks between the Washington and Tehran. Brent prices quickly fell just below $100/barrel.
Yesterday’s session was marked by elevated volatility and choppy trading, as investors weighed conflicting signals around potential US–Iran talks. While President Trump suggested progress, Iranian officials denied that negotiations were taking place, adding uncertainty to the outlook. Oil prices moved higher on these tensions.
Yesterday's session showed a risk-on sentiment, after news of Iran reportedly reviewing a peace proposal from the US increased the expectations of the conflict ending in the short term. Energy prices slid more than 2%, but have rebounded as of this morning as the strikes continue while the two countries review the terms.
Yesterday’s developments reignited inflation and growth concerns, driving a pick-up in market volatility, as expectations of a near-term de-escalation in the Middle East faded amid doubts over the US willingness to meet Iran’s demands. Brent crude surged to $108/barrel.
Concerns over the economic growth impact of the Middle East conflict gained prominence, prompting a rotation into sovereign bonds after recent selling pressure driven by inflation fears. Equity markets were mixed globally, with sharp losses in Asia, modest gains in the euro area, and slight declines in the US.
Improving prospects of a de-escalation in the Middle East supported risk sentiment, with reports suggesting both the US and Iran may be open to ending the conflict. Sovereign yields fell for a second straight session, as inflation concerns eased, while equities moved higher, led by a strong rally in the US (the S&P 500 saw its largest daily gain since May).
La pandèmia de la COVID-19 té un fort impacte sobre l’activitat econòmica, i el sector immobiliari, tot i no ser un dels més perjudicats, també es veu afectat. En concret, a CaixaBank Research, esperem que el PIB reculi entre el 13% i el 15% el 2020 i que no recuperi els nivells previs a la crisi fins al final del 2023. Malgrat la gravetat de la situació i l’elevada incertesa sobre l’evolució futura de la pandèmia, és important destacar que el sector té uns fonaments molt més sòlids que en l’anterior crisi del 2008.
La COVID-19 té un fort impacte sobre l’activitat econòmica d’Espanya i, en particular, sobre el sector turístic. A CaixaBank Research, esperem que el PIB reculi entre el 13% i el 15% el 2020 i que no recuperi els nivells previs a la crisi fins a l’any 2023. Pel que fa al sector turístic, les perspectives són, fins i tot, més adverses per a l’any 2020, ja que és un dels sectors més afectats per la pandèmia.
The Fed held its benchmark short-term interest rate and said it will continue to buy $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. Policymakers now see the first rate increase coming in 2023 instead of 2024.
Investors are now debating when the Fed is likely to start trimming its monthly bond purchases, while the Bank of Japan announced it will unveil a new tool to support efforts to address climate change.
El comerç al detall és un dels principals sectors de serveis de l’economia espanyola i és un sector empresarialment atomitzat, especialment intensiu en ocupació i amb una presència molt estesa per tot el territori nacional. en conjunt, molt més resilient que altres serveis, amb una caiguda de l’activitat molt inferior a l’observada en el conjunt de l’economia espanyola. Una part d’aquesta encomiable resiliència ha estat el resultat de l’extraordinària capacitat d’adaptació als canals de venda on-line, que ha accelerat una tendència que es venia consolidant des de feia anys i que quantifiquem en aquest informe a partir de dades internes de CaixaBank. De cara al 2021, les perspectives del comerç al detall són de recuperació, gràcies als avanços en la campanya de vacunació, que permetran una retirada, progressiva però ràpida, de les restriccions al comerç i a la mobilitat, inclosa la internacional, durant el 2T 2021.
Last Friday, investors' sentiment worsened amid rising COVID-19 cases, now more contagious with the Delta variant.
Monthly analysis of Spain’s economic and financial outlook and its long-term prospects.