Risk sentiment weakened progressively on Thursday, as early optimism over potential progress in US‑Iran talks faded by reports of skirmishes near the Strait of Hormuz, alongside news that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had again lifted restrictions on US military access to their airspace and military bases.
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Risk sentiment was mixed on Friday's session, as counterparts in the Middle East conflict remained unable to reach a peace agreement, even though President Trump announced that the ceasefire continued to hold. Energy prices ticked up, with Brent settling above $101/barrel.
Yesterday’s session reflected renewed caution over the prospects for a resolution of the Middle East conflict, as negotiations between the US and Iran remained deadlocked, with President Trump describing Tehran’s latest proposal as “totally unacceptable”. Brent settled above $104/barrel and volatility ticked up.
Yesterday's session was driven by increasing concerns over extended energy supply disruptions, as differences between the US and Iran regarding the negotiated terms make a peace agreement hard to reach. Energy prices climbed, with Brent up nearly 4%, while TTF posted more modest gains.
With no meaningful progress in the peace negotiations between the US and Iran, market focus shifted toward macroeconomic data releases and earnings results. Investors also remained attentive to President Trump’s arrival in China for talks with President Xi Jinping, where discussions are expected to focus on the implications of the Middle East conflict and on efforts to ease trade tensions between the two countries.
Risk sentiment remained broadly positive for another session, as investor focus continued to shift away from Middle East tensions, with no major developments and stable energy prices (Brent crude around $105/barrel), toward macroeconomic data, corporate earnings and AI-related investment themes.
A sharp risk-off session closed the week, as stalled US–Iran negotiations pushed energy prices sharply higher and reignited inflation concerns. Brent crude rose more than 3% to near USD 110/barrel, amid persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and continued uncertainty around regional energy flows.
Yesterday's session was a volatile one, as news from progress in the negotiations around the conflict in the Middle East came in both directions, moving energy prices and the rest of asset prices. Brent prices closed up by more than 2%, at USD 112/barrel, while TTF prices ended the session flat at EUR 50/MWh.
Yesterday's session had a risk-on tone, after US President Trump made comments referring to the deal talks with Iran as being in their final stages. Crude oil prices fell, with the barrel of Brent dropping by more than 5% to settle at USD 105/barrel, while TTF also went down by a similar magnitude (closing at EUR 49/MWh) and volatility fell.
Yesterday's session had a rather quiet tone on mixed signals, as sources in Iran announced that differences between the counterparts in the Middle East conflict were beginning to shrink, although there were no advances on Iran's nuclear programme. Brent prices fell by more than 2%, while natural gas closed flat.
La pandèmia de la COVID-19 té un fort impacte sobre l’activitat econòmica, i el sector immobiliari, tot i no ser un dels més perjudicats, també es veu afectat. En concret, a CaixaBank Research, esperem que el PIB reculi entre el 13% i el 15% el 2020 i que no recuperi els nivells previs a la crisi fins al final del 2023. Malgrat la gravetat de la situació i l’elevada incertesa sobre l’evolució futura de la pandèmia, és important destacar que el sector té uns fonaments molt més sòlids que en l’anterior crisi del 2008.
La COVID-19 té un fort impacte sobre l’activitat econòmica d’Espanya i, en particular, sobre el sector turístic. A CaixaBank Research, esperem que el PIB reculi entre el 13% i el 15% el 2020 i que no recuperi els nivells previs a la crisi fins a l’any 2023. Pel que fa al sector turístic, les perspectives són, fins i tot, més adverses per a l’any 2020, ja que és un dels sectors més afectats per la pandèmia.
The Fed held its benchmark short-term interest rate and said it will continue to buy $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. Policymakers now see the first rate increase coming in 2023 instead of 2024.
Investors are now debating when the Fed is likely to start trimming its monthly bond purchases, while the Bank of Japan announced it will unveil a new tool to support efforts to address climate change.
El comerç al detall és un dels principals sectors de serveis de l’economia espanyola i és un sector empresarialment atomitzat, especialment intensiu en ocupació i amb una presència molt estesa per tot el territori nacional. en conjunt, molt més resilient que altres serveis, amb una caiguda de l’activitat molt inferior a l’observada en el conjunt de l’economia espanyola. Una part d’aquesta encomiable resiliència ha estat el resultat de l’extraordinària capacitat d’adaptació als canals de venda on-line, que ha accelerat una tendència que es venia consolidant des de feia anys i que quantifiquem en aquest informe a partir de dades internes de CaixaBank. De cara al 2021, les perspectives del comerç al detall són de recuperació, gràcies als avanços en la campanya de vacunació, que permetran una retirada, progressiva però ràpida, de les restriccions al comerç i a la mobilitat, inclosa la internacional, durant el 2T 2021.
Last Friday, investors' sentiment worsened amid rising COVID-19 cases, now more contagious with the Delta variant.
Monthly analysis of Spain’s economic and financial outlook and its long-term prospects.