New lockdowns in Europe shook investor sentiment yesterday. Volatility jumped to levels not seen since early June and stock markets tumbled across the world (the main U.S. and European indices dropped by close to 4%). Euro area core sovereign yields declined while peripheral spreads rose, and the EUR weakened below $1.18.
Resultats de la cerca
El mercat immobiliari espanyol es va començar a desaccelerar cap a la meitat del 2022 amb el canvi de rumb de la política monetària. Ara com ara, i malgrat que el BCE ja ha apujat els tipus d’interès de referència en 4 p. p., el ritme de desacceleració és més suau del que s’havia anticipat, la qual cosa ens ha empès a millorar les previsions del sector per al 2023. No obstant això, de cara als propers trimestres, continuem esperant un ajust notable en el nombre de compravendes en relació amb els elevats registres del 2022 i un alentiment del creixement del preu de l’habitatge, en especial el 2024, en un context de tipus d’interès alts durant més temps. Així i tot, hi ha diversos factors que continuaran fent costat al sector i que fan improbable una correcció tan forta com l’experimentada el 2008-2013, entre els quals destaquen un mercat laboral resilient i uns fluxos d’immigració significatius.
Creixement sectorial generalitzat després de superar els xocs dels últims anys
El nostre Indicador Sectorial recull una millora generalitzada entre sectors el 2024, especialment significativa en algunes branques manufactureres, com ara la indústria química, la farmacèutica i la paperera, beneficiades pel descens de la factura energètica i per la millora de les exportacions. Per contra, el sector de l’automoció s’ha desaccelerat de forma notable al llarg d’aquest any, després de la recuperació experimentada el 2023.
En este episodio de Economía Exprés, Oriol Aspachs, director de Economía Española en CaixaBank Research, analiza el sorprendente crecimiento económico de España en 2024 y las previsiones para 2025. Un año en el que la economía seguirá creciendo, pero a un ritmo condicionado por la incertidumbre geopolítica. Con él exploramos el impacto de la política arancelaria de Donald Trump, los efectos de los avances de la Unión Europea en aumentar su gasto en defensa y la situación de los principales socios comerciales de la economía española.
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In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously in Europe as the European Commission's downbeat economic projections still weighed on sentiment.
European stocks and bond yields fell yesterday as Italy, France, Germany and Spain suspend vaccinations with the AstraZeneca vaccine over worries about the jabs' side-effects. Meanwhile, Italy has taken more stringent lockdown measures. The Eurostoxx50 was down by 0.1%.
Investors started the first full week of trading of the year with a slightly higher risk appetite than at the end of December. In the eurozone, German government bond yields rose after December CPI came in above expectations, while peripheral spreads fell as the final December PMI reading surprised to the upside across the eurozone, but especially in the periphery.
Following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, during which the Fed signaled a cautious path ahead, euro area financial markets caught up to their US counterparts during yesterday's session. Sovereign bond yields rose by +6bp in the region, and the main equity indices ended sharply lower. Meanwhile, the euro traded around $1.03 against the dollar.
Stock markets rose in the U.S. but experienced widespread declines in Europe. In fixed-income markets, U.S. sovereign yields ticked up and European yields remained stable (with the exception of Portugal's).
The advance PMI figures for December extended the recent trend of divergent growth between the US and euro area countries. The composite PMI in the US rose from 54.9 last month to 56.6, whereas the euro area composite index stayed below 50, albeit improving from 48.3 to 49.5, boosted by a recovery in the services sector (to 51.4).
Stocks rose supported by the release of strong earnings, both in the U.S. and Europe, while in fixed-income markets sovereign yields on U.S. and Euro Area bonds edged up.
Markets were mixed in the first session of the week as investors remained cautious on the outlook of the global economy. In the euro area, sovereign bonds ended flat and the main stock indices edged lower as markets await further details on tariffs from the US. The euro area composite PMI rose to 50.4 this month from 50.2 in February.
Las bolsas empezaron la semana al alza tanto en EE. UU. como en los principales parqués europeos, mientras que en el mercado de renta fija las yields soberanas estadounidenses y de la periferia de la eurozona se movieron ligeramente al alza.
Investors traded cautiously amid political tensions in France, where lawmakers are set to vote today on no-confidence motions. Euro area sovereign bond yields edged lower, and France's risk premium narrowed to 85bp after reaching 88bp in the previous session. The region's main stock indices advanced slightly, and the euro held steady at 1.05 against the dollar.
With US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, European investors remained focused on the French budget impasse. Eurozone bond yields fell and peripheral spreads narrowed yesterday as Barnier's government weighed concessions on limiting electricity tax hikes, as demanded by Le Pen, to avert a no-confidence vote.
Global markets started the week with a mixed session. In Europe, stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields advanced as investors eyed negotiations over the EU stimulus plan ahead of the European Council.
Euro area markets had a cautious session ahead of the no-confidence vote in France, approved late last night. Sovereign bond yields were mostly flat, and the region's main equity indices posted small gains. The euro was flat against its main peers, leaving its cross with the US dollar at 1.05.